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20 resultsfor “UK growth forecast 2026”

Business

UK unemployment shows surprise fall to 4.9% as pay growth drops to lowest in five years

UK faced the biggest growth downgrade among the G7 group of countries](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices), with 0.8% forecast for 2026

The Guardian WorldApr 21
Business

UK growth forecast upgraded by IMF but risks remain

forecast for the UK's growth this year, but warned the Iran war and "domestic uncertainty" could hit the economy. The growth estimate has been upgraded to 1% from 0.8% for 2026

BBC News2h ago
Business

Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

UK [faced the biggest growth downgrade](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices) among the G7 group of countries, with 0.8% forecast for 2026

The Guardian WorldApr 20
Business

What's happening to the UK economy and how does it affect you?

2026 from 1.4% to to 1.1%. However, this forecast was also made before the start of the war began. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expected the conflict to hit the UK

BBC NewsApr 16
Politics

IMF urges UK to ‘stay the course’ on borrowing amid Starmer uncertainty

UK economy, the IMF praised the chancellor, [Rachel Reeves](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/rachel-reeves), for striking “a good balance between deficit reduction and growth-friendly spending” as it upgraded its growth forecasts for 2026

The Guardian World2h ago
Politics

'Bit of pain' worth long-term security from Iran, Bessent tells BBC

2026. That is below an earlier forecast of 3.3%. It also left its prediction for global growth next year unchanged at 3.2%. Of the world's advanced economies, the IMF has forecast that [the UK

BBC NewsApr 14
Business

Reeves arrives at IMF with little leeway to prove its UK downgrade wrong

forecasts for 2026 were partly because of a “shadow effect of that growth” influencing the performance. It is a view Reeves does not recognise – arguing that Labour put the country on a stronger footing after

The Guardian WorldApr 14
Business

UK faces £35bn hit and risk of recession this year over impact of Iran war, thinktank warns

growth forecasts for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points, to 0.9%, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027, to 1%. It also warned under an adverse scenario, involving the global oil price hitting $140 a barrel

The Guardian WorldApr 28
World

The tipping point: what happens when deaths outnumber births?

UK, the latest projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that [deaths will outnumber births](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/28/deaths-projected-to-outnumber-births-in-uk-every-year-from-2026) every year from 2026 onwards, driven by falling fertility and the large, postwar “baby boom

The Guardian WorldMay 2
Business

UK economy records surprise 0.3% growth in first month of the Iran war

forecast GDP would shrink by 0.2%. Over the first three months of 2026, GDP rose 0.6%, up sharply from growth of 0.1% in the final three months of last year. The ONS said that growth

The Guardian WorldMay 14
World

Deaths projected to outnumber births in UK every year from 2026

2026 and the population is expected to grow at a slower rate over the next few decades than previously reported, according to the [Office for National Statistics](https://www.theguardian.com/uk/office-for-national-statistics) (ONS). About 1.7 million people

The Guardian WorldApr 28
World

US talks between Lebanon and Israel end – as it happened

2026](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices) based on the impact of the war and said any further escalation in the conflict could trigger a global recession Bessent however cast cuts in global growth forecasts and higher inflation

The Guardian WorldApr 15
Business

UK jobs market was in a fragile state – even before Iran war threatened recovery

UK workers are already likely to have been feeling the pinch. The data shows total annual pay growth in the three months to February at 3.8%, its weakest since autumn 2020, in the depths

The Guardian WorldApr 21
Health

More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on

2026, according to projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The UK population is now expected to grow at a slower rate than previously thought, reaching 71 million by 2034, owing to a sharp

BBC NewsApr 28
World

Middle East crisis live: US claims blockade has ‘completely halted economic trade’ into Iran, as Trump hints at return to talks in Pakistan

UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron will co-host a summit in Paris on Friday focused on efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz,** Downing Street said. A spokesperson said

The Guardian WorldApr 15
Politics

Reeves says ‘if economy ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ - as fight to keep her job goes on

forecasts for a 0.2% contraction – the chancellor said the figures showed she had the right economic plan, in a comment laced with subtext. Over the first three months of 2026, the economy grew

The Guardian WorldMay 14
Business

Four in five Britons worried Iran war will make food more expensive, poll finds

UK should be moving in the same direction, not treating global instability as cover for inaction on costs of its own making.” The Opinium survey suggested that the cost of living crisis would remain

The Guardian WorldMay 6
Business

Air France-KLM cuts capacity growth forecast amid expected $2.4bn fuel bill rise

forecasts for this year as the Iran war drives up its fuel costs by billions of dollars. The French-Dutch airline expects its fuel bill to increase by $2.4bn (£1.8bn) this year

The Guardian WorldApr 30
Conflicts

Iranian forces seize two ships in strait of Hormuz amid doubts over further peace talks with US

UK-based maritime security monitor [reported](https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260422-ukmto_warning_attack.pdf?rev=85f516057e214383a089fb298fe5987c) attacks on ships in the waterway on Wednesday, including an incident in which a vessel was approached by an Iranian gunboat “that then fired upon

The Guardian WorldApr 22
Business

From oil giants to banks - these companies are making billions from Iran war

forecasts and expect their profits to grow further as the year goes on, with the price of oil still significantly higher than when the war broke out. Some of the biggest banks have also seen

BBC NewsMay 8