More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on

Deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, according to projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The UK population is now expected to grow at a slower rate than previously thought, reaching 71 million by 2034, owing to a sharp fall in migration.

Declining fertility rates also mean the number of children in the UK is expected to fall in the next decade while pensioners are expected to grow faster than working age adults.

Previous projections suggested the population would continue to grow until 2096, but now "the population is projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing," James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, said.

The population is expected to grow by 1.7 million in the 10 years after 2024 as shown by the dotted red line in the graph above.

This is far slower than the growth seen in the previous decade due to people having fewer children and having them later in life.

Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects:

• 6.4 million people will be born
• 6.9 million people will die
• 7.3 million will immigrate to the UK on a long-term basis
• 5.1 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK

Deaths are projected to outnumber births by nearly half a million people in that 10-year period.

The ONS stressed the figures, which cover the next 100 years of the UK's population, are projections and not predictions or forecasts. It warned real numbers could be higher or lower depending on future births, deaths and migration levels.

The ONS now expects net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to the UK and those leaving - to add 2.2 million people to the UK population in total between 2024 and 2034.

That is lower than previously projected as the ONS now treats the post Brexit immigration peak as a "blip" rather than an ongoing trend, said Dr Madeleine Sumption, of Oxford University's Migration Observatory.

"In the short term, the projections suggest net migration will fall temporarily before bouncing back up again."

The chart below shows that net migration to the UK peaked near a million people in 2023 and has since fallen to just over 200,000 people.

A Home Office spokesperson said: "While these projections do not directly take into account recent policy changes, we must go further to reduce the levels of migration.

"That's why we are introducing sweeping reforms to our immigration system, ending over-reliance on cheap labour whilst attracting the brightest and the best to the UK."

By 2034 pensioners are expected to make up a fifth of the population. Despite the rising state pension age they are the fastest growing section of the population, while the number of children is projected to fall by 1.6 million.