Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says
February’s [better-than-expected rise in gross domestic product](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-february-gdp-report-economy-iran-war-stock-market-reeves-ftse-sterling-live-updates?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-69e0767f8f08259d93962714).
The EY Item Club also expects unemployment to hit 5.8% by the middle of 2027, up from the current [five-year high