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UK unemployment shows surprise fall to 4.9% as pay growth drops to lowest in five years

UK faced the biggest growth downgrade among the G7 group of countries](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices), with 0.8% forecast for 2026, down from the 1.3% the IMF

What's happening to the UK economy and how does it affect you?

2026 from 1.4% to to 1.1%. However, this forecast was also made before the start of the war began. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expected the conflict to hit the UK

IMF urges UK to ‘stay the course’ on borrowing amid Starmer uncertainty

UK economy, the IMF praised the chancellor, [Rachel Reeves](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/rachel-reeves), for striking “a good balance between deficit reduction and growth-friendly spending” as it upgraded its growth forecasts for 2026

Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

UK [faced the biggest growth downgrade](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices) among the G7 group of countries, with 0.8% forecast for 2026, down from the 1.3% the IMF

'Bit of pain' worth long-term security from Iran, Bessent tells BBC

2026. That is below an earlier forecast of 3.3%. It also left its prediction for global growth next year unchanged at 3.2%. Of the world's advanced economies, the IMF has forecast that [the UK

Reeves arrives at IMF with little leeway to prove its UK downgrade wrong

IMF’s economic counsellor, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that its weak forecasts for 2026 were partly because of a “shadow effect of that growth” influencing the performance. It is a view Reeves does not recognise

UK growth forecast upgraded by IMF but risks remain

IMF) has upgraded its forecast for the UK's growth this year, but warned the Iran war and "domestic uncertainty" could hit the economy. The growth estimate has been upgraded to 1% from

US talks between Lebanon and Israel end – as it happened

2026](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/14/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices) based on the impact of the war and said any further escalation in the conflict could trigger a global recession Bessent however cast cuts in global growth forecasts and higher inflation

Middle East crisis live: US claims blockade has ‘completely halted economic trade’ into Iran, as Trump hints at return to talks in Pakistan

UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron will co-host a summit in Paris on Friday focused on efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz,** Downing Street said. A spokesperson said

UK borrowed bigger than forecast £24.3bn in April as inflation adds to benefits bill

UK government bonds, known as gilts, have [come under heavy selling pressure](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/20/uk-borrowing-rises-unexpectedly-in-february). Amid [febrile conditions in global markets](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/18/oil-prices-rise-bonds-iran-war-peace-talks-inflation-trump-crude-gilts-starmer), investors fear his successor as prime minister would add to borrowing