UK unemployment shows surprise fall to 4.9% as pay growth drops to lowest in five years
impact of the Iran war is expected to hurt the labour market in the coming months. The EY Item Club has forecast that unemployment [will hit 5.8% by the middle of 2027](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/20/250000-could-lose-job-2027-uk-recession-analysis-economy-iran-war),