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Trainline says Middle East tensions hitting European rail bookings
TL;DR
Trainline reports that tensions in the Middle East are negatively impacting European rail bookings, leading to flat or declining revenues. The company cites geopolitical issues affecting inbound air traffic as a key factor in consumer uncertainty around travel plans.
Key points
- Trainline reports declining revenues due to Middle East tensions
- Geopolitical issues are affecting inbound air traffic to Europe
- Shares in Trainline dropped sharply following earnings guidance
Mentioned in this story
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Trainline has said the US standoff with Iran is hitting its revenues, with rail ticket sales to foreign visitors to Europe affected.
The UK-based ticketing retailer said it expected revenues to stay flat or decline over the coming year, citing “the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe”.
Airlines have reported later bookings, with considerable consumer uncertainty around summer travel plans. The US-Israel war on Iran, closure of the strait of Hormuz and subsequent blockades have raised doubts about global jet fuel supply, with carriers already beginning to cancel thousands of flights.
Shares in the company dropped sharply on its earnings guidance, with the Middle East tensions adding to Trainline’s prior warnings of headwinds, including UK ticketing policy.
The British government has frozen rail fares and indicated that it would set up its own ticketing website under the planned Great British Railways, while the expansion of contactless payments around London and other cities is likely to further eat into Trainline’s business.
The group, whose primary revenues remain UK-based, reported full-year operating profits up 43% to £122m, with revenue up by 2% to £453m for 2025-26.
However, it said it now expected sales of just £440-455m in 2026-27.
It said it remained Europe’s most downloaded rail app and is targeting further growth in Italy and France, where greater competition among operators on long-distance routes is expanding the ticketing market.
Jody Ford, the outgoing chief executive of Trainline, said it had been “a year of strong delivery with record net ticket sales and revenue, and continued double-digit growth in profitability”.
He added: “Ahead of the creation of GBR online retail in the UK, we are working closely with government to deliver on its commitment to deliver a fair and open regulatory framework. We strongly welcome the recent decision to open delay repay to independent retailers, our customers’ number one ask.”
Shares fell 7% in early trading but recovered to about 3% down by midday.
Q&A
How are Middle East tensions affecting Trainline's revenues?
Trainline has indicated that geopolitical tensions are reducing inbound air traffic to Europe, which in turn is impacting rail ticket sales to foreign visitors.
What has been the impact of the US-Israel war on airline bookings?
The US-Israel war and related tensions have led to later bookings and cancellations of thousands of flights, creating uncertainty for summer travel plans.
What are the future revenue expectations for Trainline?
Trainline expects its revenues to remain flat or decline over the next year due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and other market challenges.
