How ISWAP and Boko Haram are reshaping the Lake Chad Basin

Economic factors also seem to play a notable role in the resurgence of both groups. Control of the Lake Chad islands could provide authority over taxation routes, smuggling corridors, and resource extraction, turning the islands into potentially lucrative areas of competition that extend beyond purely ideological motives.

Violence mechanics

This combination of armed activity and criminal enterprise also appears to support how the groups sustain themselves. Boko Haram’s mix of ideological and criminal operations, including robbery and kidnapping, may help fund its activities while attracting disaffected youth. Recruitment seems influenced by the region’s fragile socioeconomic conditions, including high poverty and unemployment, rather than ideology alone.

The shortcomings of reintegration programmes are also considered to contribute to the problem, with former combatants rejoining Boko Haram after facing limited life prospects. ISS research found that former ISWAP members, who would face execution for deserting their group, were joining Boko Haram’s Ghazwah wing in Borno, notorious for robbery and ransom operations.

In addition to financial and operational factors, the groups exploit gaps in local governance and security presence to consolidate influence. Remote communities often experience inconsistent law enforcement, limited state services, and weak administrative oversight, creating spaces where armed groups can operate with relative impunity.

“ISWAP and Boko Haram have become active again in the Lake Chad Basin for three main reasons: their resilience and ability to adapt to the evolving tactics of the Nigerian armed forces; the lucrative economy of violence that sustains their funding and manpower; and the Nigerian state’s limited ability to establish a legitimate, lasting presence in the region that could undermine their credibility,” Chris Ogunmodede, a Nigerian political analyst, told Al Jazeera.

Beyond military reach

Many of the factors driving armed attacks in the Lake Chad Basin are unlikely to be solved by military operations alone. The conditions that give ISWAP and Boko Haram their recruitment base, logistical support, and social legitimacy in some communities can be traced to decades of poverty, displacement, governance gaps, and political exclusion.

Data from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) shows the region hosts 2.9 million internally displaced people, including 2.3 million in Nigeria. Violence has forced the closure of 1,827 schools across the Lake Chad Basin, while humanitarian actors received just 19 percent of the funding required for 2025.

“ISWAP and Boko Haram’s recent resurgence reflects not simply a military setback, but a deepening governance vacuum across the Lake Chad Basin,” Abiola Sadiq, a security consultant, told Al Jazeera.

The Lake Chad Basin continues to face overlapping crises: millions remain displaced, schools are closed, and humanitarian aid is insufficient. Armed groups exploit geographic and administrative gaps to expand operations, while regional security cooperation struggles to keep pace with their adaptability.

“While the reported killing of ISIL leader Abu-Bilal al-Minuki may temporarily disrupt command structures, it is also likely to trigger retaliatory violence as rival jihadist factions compete for relevance, legitimacy, and territorial influence,” said Sadiq.

In the weeks following the strike, intelligence reports recorded a surge in small-scale attacks and cross-border raids, indicating that operational fragmentation has not diminished the groups’ capacity to coordinate assaults. Civilians continue to face restricted movement and elevated risks of recruitment, extortion, and displacement.

“With Nigeria’s 2027 general elections approaching, these groups are highly likely to intensify their operations, potentially extending attacks beyond their traditional strongholds in the Lake Chad Basin and northeastern Nigeria,” said Sadiq.