GM expecting $500m Trump tariff refund, boosting its 2026 earnings outlook

General Motors is expecting a $500m tariff refund after the US supreme court struck down some of Donald Trump’s most sweeping levies.

That has boosted the Detroit automaker’s outlook for 2026. On Tuesday, GM said it was now looking to rake in $13.5bn-$15.5bn in earnings before interest and taxes this year – up from previous forecasts of $13bn-$15bn.

The refund is set to ease the company’s total tariff expenses. GM anticipates paying $2.5bn-$3.5bn in tariff costs for 2026, the company said on Tuesday, down from an original estimate of $3bn-$4bn.

“We are clearly operating in a very dynamic environment, which isn’t unusual for this industry,” GM’s CEO, Mary Barra, wrote in a letter to shareholders. Still, she maintained the company was seeing solid growth and a strong balance sheet “to achieve our long-term goals”.

For the first quarter of 2026, GM reported earnings of $2.63bn and a revenue of $43.62bn.

GM confirmed to the Associated Press that it had not received the refund yet, and did not have a specific estimate for when it will, but $500m is what it expects after the decision from the supreme court. The court in February ruled that the levies Trump imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, were illegal.

Companies both big and small are seeking refunds for IEEPA tariffs they have already paid. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency launched an online system for claims last week.

If CBP approves a claim, it will take between 60 and 90 days for a refund to be issued, the agency said. But the system is being rolled out in phases, and only some tariff refunds will be returned in the first phase.

CBP said in court filings that more than 330,000 importers paid a total of about $166bn on over 53m shipments.

The now-overturned IEEPA tariffs included so-called “reciprocal” tariffs that Trump slapped on nearly every country in the world a year ago and “trafficking tariffs” on imports from Mexico, Canada and China – as well as separate duties on countries such as Brazil and India, all of which the president imposed by declaring a national emergency.

February’s supreme court decision marked a significant blow to Trump’s economic agenda. But many other tariffs remain in effect – including punishing sectoral levies that Trump imposed using another law (section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act) on foreign steel, aluminum, cars and other products. And companies like GM are continuing to pay those costs.

The administration has also signaled that more new duties are on the way.

Trump has publicly attacked companies that have warned of price hikes spanning from tariffs – and at times used the threat of new import taxes to strike deals. Last week, the president also said he would “remember” those that do not seek refunds from his IEEPA tariffs.