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The Guardian World1 min read
US soldier pleads not guilty to charges of betting on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster
TL;DR
A US soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, pleaded not guilty to fraud charges for allegedly betting $33,000 on Nicolás Maduro's ouster using insider information, winning $400,000. This case is the first insider trading charge involving a prediction market in the US.
Key points
- Gannon Ken Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to fraud charges
- He allegedly won $400,000 by betting on Nicolás Maduro's ouster
- Van Dyke placed $33,000 in bets on prediction market Polymarket
- This case involves the first insider trading charges related to a prediction market
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed civil charges against him
Mentioned in this story
Gannon Ken Van DykeNicolás MaduroCommodity Futures Trading Commission
The US army soldier charged with winning $400,000 by using insider information to bet on the removal of ousted Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro pleaded not guilty to fraud charges on Tuesday.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, entered the plea in US district judge Margaret Garnett’s courtroom in Manhattan. Van Dyke sported a shaved head and wore a black blazer, jeans and brown shoes as he arrived to the courtroom with his lawyers, Zach Intrater and Mark Geragos.
Van Dyke was arrested on 23 April on a federal indictment charging him with placing $33,000 in bets on prediction market Polymarket between 27 December 2025 and 2 January 2026 that Maduro would soon be out of office and that US forces would soon enter Venezuela.
Markets at the time assigned low probabilities to those events, leading to a big payout for Van Dyke, prosecutors said.
The case marks the first time the US justice department has filed insider trading charges involving a prediction market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed civil charges against Van Dyke.
Van Dyke, a master sergeant with US army special forces who is stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, was involved in the “planning and execution” of the January raid that captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, prosecutors said.
He faces five criminal counts: unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
Polymarket said it flagged Van Dyke’s trading to the authorities and cooperated with the investigation.
Rival prediction market Kalshi had previously blocked Van Dyke from opening an account due to the platform’s ID requirements, Reuters reported on Friday, citing a person familiar with the matter.
US magistrate judge Brian Meyers in Raleigh, North Carolina, ordered Van Dyke released on $250,000 bond at his initial court appearance on Friday in Raleigh. Garnett is expected to oversee Van Dyke’s case going forward.
Q&A
What charges did Gannon Ken Van Dyke face in relation to Nicolás Maduro?
Gannon Ken Van Dyke faced fraud charges for allegedly using insider information to bet on Nicolás Maduro's ouster.
How much money did Van Dyke allegedly win from his bets on Maduro's removal?
Van Dyke allegedly won $400,000 from his bets on the prediction market Polymarket.
What is significant about the charges against Van Dyke?
The charges against Van Dyke are significant as they mark the first time the US justice department has filed insider trading charges involving a prediction market.
