‘Erosion of a country’s future’: What has the war cost Sudan?

Three years into its civil war, Sudan has become unrecognisable with more than 40,000 people killed, about 14 million of its people – a quarter of the population – forced to flee their homes and civilian infrastructure across the country extensively damaged.

“We are not just facing a crisis – we are witnessing the systematic erosion of a country’s future,” Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP’s) resident representative in Sudan, told Al Jazeera.

A report by the UNDP and the Institute for Security Studies lays out the scale of Sudan’s economic collapse since the war began in 2023 due to a power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Even under the most optimistic scenario of peace being achieved in 2026, Sudan would still lose an estimated $18.8bn in its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2043, the report said, illustrating just how deeply the war has already reshaped the country’s economic trajectory.

The report warned that the damage goes beyond lost economic activity and is affecting the very foundations of the economy, including agriculture, industry, services and state institutions.

Here’s a look at how the war has impacted Sudan, one of the most impoverished countries in the world.How has the war affected Sudan’s infrastructure and basic services?

The destruction of Sudan’s infrastructure and the collapse of the systems that support daily life and economic activity have imposed a massive economic cost on the country.

According to UNDP estimates, Sudan lost $6.4bn in its GDP in 2023 alone, a loss that Renda said reflected “a simultaneous collapse across all major parts of Sudan’s economy”, driven in large part by the destruction of infrastructure. Sudan’s GDP was $26bn in 2023, the year fighting erupted as army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo jostled for power.

Fighting has damaged farmland, irrigation systems and transport networks, contributing to a 15 percent drop in cultivated land. In urban centres, the destruction of factories and the power supply has caused industrial activity to collapse by about 90 percent, shutting down businesses and resulting in the loss of jobs.

Up to 40 percent of power generation capacity has been lost, and key water infrastructure has been destroyed or seized, cutting communities off from clean water and sanitation.

“The destruction of infrastructure not only triggers displacement but also makes it extremely difficult for people to secure adequate housing or access basic services once displaced,” Renda told Al Jazeera.

Outbreaks of disease, including cholera, have spread as water systems broke down, placing further strain on an already weakened health sector and increasing the long-term costs of recovery.

The World Health Organization has verified more than 200 attacks on healthcare facilities with fewer than 14 percent fully operational in conflict areas. Thousands of schools have closed or have been damaged, disrupting the educations of millions of children.

What has happened to Sudan’s labour market?

Agriculture, which had employed about 65 percent of the workforce, was once the backbone of Sudan’s economy, but it has been severely hit by the war. Cultivated land has shrunk, adversely impacting rural livelihoods. Many rural communities that depended on farming for income and food have lost their economic base, weakening a sector that previously sustained millions of families.

According to the UNDP, average incomes have fallen back to levels last seen in 1992, underscoring the depth of the economic shock and its impact on households across the country.

About 90 percent of manufacturing activity has been destroyed in key economic hubs, eliminating thousands of jobs. Simultaneously, the informal economy, which is a key source of survival for many people in Sudan, has contracted as resource shortages and displacement have shut down small businesses and markets.

Displacement has further deepened the crisis as more than 14 million people have been forced from their homes and pushed out of both formal and informal work, making it increasingly difficult to sustain livelihoods.

What has the war done to Sudan’s oil industry?

Oil output has fallen amid widespread instability and infrastructure damage. The Khartoum refinery (Al-Jaili), which previously processed up to 100,000 barrels per day and supplied about half of Sudan’s fuel needs, has been out of operation since July 2023.

Refinery officials said parts of the facility have been destroyed and other sections require full replacement after repeated strikes in 2024 and 2025.

Although recaptured by the army in 2025, the facility remains nonoperational.

Key infrastructure has also been hit elsewhere. Pipeline routes carrying crude to Port Sudan shut down from war-related damage while facilities at Heglig were disrupted by RSF drone attacks.

Sudanese women lie in beds as they receive treatment for dengue fever at Omdurman Hospital, as Sudan grapples with outbreaks of dengue and cholera amid the annual rainy season and a collapsed healthcare and infrastructure system, in Khartoum, Sudan, on September 23, 2025 [File: El Tayeb Siddig/Reuters]

What effect has the war had on prices?

The collapse of the Sudanese pound and supply chains has caused a sharp rise in living costs across Sudan.

The pound has fallen from about 570 per dollar before the war to between 3,500 and 3,600 today, according to the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics. The drop has made imports expensive.

As a result, food prices have surged. In the capital, Khartoum, four pieces of bread now cost about 1,000 pounds, an amount that had previously bought six pieces. In Gezira State, a 50kg (110lb) sack of sugar has risen from 155,000 to 175,000 pounds while a bag of cement has jumped from 35,000 to 55,000 pounds, according to traders quoted by the Sudan Tribune.

Household essentials have followed the same trend. In Port Sudan, a 7-litre (nearly 2-gallon) container of cooking oil increased from 30,000 to 35,000 pounds, adding further pressure to family budgets.

Transport and fuel costs have also risen sharply. Bus fares in Wad Madani are up about 50 percent. Rickshaw fares have nearly doubled in some areas, and fuel prices have reached more than 7,000 pounds per litre (1 quart) in several regions.

Wages, however, have failed to catch up with inflation, leaving many households without access to necessities. Nearly half the population is now experiencing acute food shortages, according to the UNDP, while nearly 90 percent of displaced households report they cannot afford enough food.

What does the economic collapse mean for Sudan’s people?

The collapse of Sudan’s economy cannot be understood through numbers alone.

“A child born in Sudan after April 2023 enters a world where the hospital that should care for them is likely closed, the school that should educate them is probably not functioning and the family that should support them has likely been displaced,” Renda said, adding that it is resulting in “lost childhoods, lost education, lost health”.

About 34 million people are now in need of assistance, and 19 million are facing acute food shortages.

The human cost is already visible. About 5.6 million children have been born since the war began, many into conditions in which health facilities are not operating.

Education has been severely disrupted for about 19 million children, according to the UNDP, as only about 20 percent of schools currently are operational in some areas.

What does continued war mean for Sudan’s future?

The war has already caused death, trauma and profound loss, casting a long shadow over Sudan’s future and dimming the prospects of a generation whose lives are being shaped by violence.

If the conflict continues to 2030, Sudan’s economy in 2043 would be about $34.5bn smaller than it would have been without the war, and GDP per capita would drop by roughly $1,700, according to UNDP estimates.

Extreme poverty would rise above 60 percent of the population, pushing an additional 34 million people into deprivation.

Renda described the war as a “shrinking opportunity for recovery” in which each month of continued conflict locks in deeper and more irreversible damage.

“Every additional month costs lives and deepens structural damage,” he told Al Jazeera. “The most urgent priority is to stop the conflict.”

“The choices made now will determine whether Sudan’s trajectory can still be reversed,” he said.