Elections 2026 live: counting under way after votes in England, Scotland and Wales

Bethan McKernan is the Guardian’s Wales correspondent

This week the Welsh parliament will grow from 60 to 96 members under a new, more proportional electoral system. Labour is expected to lose control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999, with Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth expected to become the new first minister, putting Welsh independence firmly on the agenda.

Coalition arithmetic makes it highly unlikely Reform will be able to form a government, even if it wins the most seats. If the numbers allow, Plaid Cymru will form a minority government without entering formal coalition agreements with Labour or the Green party.

Labour’s predicted losses are so catastrophic that some polls put the party in fourth place, after the Greens. Several polls suggest Eluned Morgan, the Labour first minister, will lose her seat.

The Senedd’s new list system has razor-sharp margins, making predictions very difficult. As little as 0.06% of the vote could decide the last (sixth) seat in each constituency, according to the pollsters More in Common.

Aletha Adu is a Guardian political correspondent

The early hours of Friday morning will produce only a handful of declarations but they could shape the mood of the entire elections.

Hartlepool is one of the first major tests of whether Reform UK can convert polling momentum into real council gains. The declaration guide itself flags the possibility of Reform making significant advances there as one of the key storylines of the night.

If Reform performs strongly, Labour strategists will worry less about isolated local setbacks and more about the emergence of a durable anti-establishment challenger capable of eating into Labour’s old coalition in towns the party once considered safe.

Oxford could offer an early sign of how fragmented progressive and anti-Tory voters have become, with Labour, the Greens and Liberal Democrats all competing for similar voters. The declaration guide refers to “a mess of different liberal winners in Oxford”.

Dudley matters because it sits in politically volatile Midlands territory where Labour faces pressure from Reform amid frustration over immigration, living standards and distrust of Westminster politics.

You can see a full election results timeline here:

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of election results in England, Scotland and Wales.

Thursday’s votes covered the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and 136 local councils in , where 5,014 seats were contested, including every one on all of London’s 32 borough councils, more than a dozen borough councils, six unitary councils, six county councils and three district councils. A further 73 councils held elections for half or a third of the seats available.