Albanese won’t bring in a gas export tax next week – but he’ll struggle to hold off pressure forever

Two separate events on Monday – one in rain-soaked Canberra, the other in sunny Gladstone – neatly explain why the federal government won’t pursue a new gas export tax in next week’s budget and why it might have no choice but to do so in the future.

In the nation’s capital, Anthony Albanese hosted his Japanese counterpart, Sanae Takaichi, for annual leaders’ talks that coincided with the 50th anniversary of the signing of a landmark treaty between the two nations.

The prime ministers made high-level commitments on economic security, energy trade, defence and cyber, elevating a friendship that Albanese said had “never been closer”.

Had local journalists had the chance to put questions to Takaichi – which they didn’t – she would have almost certainly been asked about the prospect of a new tax on Australian liquified natural gas (LNG) exports.

Takaichi might not have responded, at least not explicitly.

But the Australian government – from Albanese down – would be in no doubt such a measure would face political and corporate resistance in Tokyo.

Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email

Australia supplies Japan with roughly 40% of its LNG, making the east Asian nation hostile to any market intervention that it considers a threat to the stability of those supplies.

Gas exporters, including Inpex, whose parent company is partly owned by the Japanese government, have framed the prospect of a 25% export levy as one such risk that could undermine Australia’s standing as a reliable seller.

Whether that claim has any weight whatsoever is questionable to say the least.

But it has proven influential for Albanese, who is clearly not prepared to risk a potential backlash from Tokyo and other Asian energy trading partners at the same time Australia is leaning on them for shipments of petrol and diesel during the international oil crisis.

“These agreements are to the benefit of both of our people. For Australians, it will mean we are less vulnerable to global shocks like we are seeing right now because of conflict in the Middle East,” Albanese said of the agreements struck on Monday.

Circumstances have helped the gas companies win the argument this time.

But the Albanese government will face risks of its own if it doesn’t move eventually.

Which leads to the second event on Monday.

Labour Day marches are typically the domain of Labor MPs and their trade union allies, a chance to celebrate their success in progressing the rights of working people.

At Monday’s event in the Queensland resources town of Gladstone, a different kind of politician was front and centre: David Pocock.