Young Bulgarians hold out for change in eighth election in five years

For voters like Aleksandar Tanev, 22, Radev is not a credible option. The law student believes Radev, who resigned as president in order to run in this election, “is part of this same model” of politicians and “had the opportunity to use the caretaker governments to fight this mafia” as president but did not.

Dimitar Keranov, a Bulgarian fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s European resilience programme in Berlin, said voters were split along broadly generational lines. “I don’t think [Radev] would be a straightforward vote for young Bulgarians, because I think he represents the same status quo young Bulgarians would like to see dismantled,” he said. “He’s representing the same old guard or the usual political elite.”

A victory for Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria (PB), a left-leaning but Moscow-friendly coalition, could prove another headache for Brussels and its allies just as the EU breathes a sigh of relief over Orbán’s demise. On Wednesday, amid concern over the rising cost of living, Radev took aim at the previous government for its introduction of the euro “without asking” voters. “And now, when you pay your bills, always remember which politicians promised you that you would be in the ‘club of the rich’,” he said.

In July 2023, his apparent sympathy with the Kremlin prompted a scolding by Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Sofia’s presidential palace. “You would say ‘Putin, please grab Bulgarian territory?’” asked the Ukrainian president.

Rumen Radev is known for his pro-Russian rhetoric and opposition to Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro. Photograph: Belish/Rex/Shutterstock

Last year Radev said EU support for Ukraine was a “doomed cause”, and last month he criticised a security agreement signed between Ukraine and Bulgaria. In a recent interview, he said Bulgaria’s status as “the only member state of the European Union that is both Slavic and Eastern Orthodox” meant it could be “a very important link in this whole mechanism … to restore relations with Russia”.

Bulgaria, a country of 6.5 million people sandwiched in the south-east corner of Europe between Greece and Romania, has struggled to find a way out of a long-running political crisis in which successive weak coalitions have failed to survive and trust in democratic elections has waned.

The political turmoil, alongside allegations of endemic corruption and a captured judiciary, have contributed to historically low trust among voters in their governments and institutions – and election fatigue. The turnout at the last election in 2024 was just 39%, suggesting many did not see a point in casting their ballot.

The run-up to the election on Sunday has been chaotic. Parties have accused each other of wanting to steal the election, several hundred people have been arrested and at least €1m has been seized in police operations against alleged vote-buying.

Meanwhile, the Sofia-based Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD) has said the country has been targeted by a disinformation campaign spreading pro-Russian and anti-western content, highlighting its vulnerability to outside threats.

Election posters and European flags in Sofia this week. Photograph: Nikolay Doychinov/AFP/Getty Images

Some analysts believe the Hungarian election, in which Orbán’s defeat after 16 years in power was caused at least in part by high numbers of young people coming out to vote for his opponent, will prove a galvanising force in Bulgaria.

Asen Lazarov, 26, a co-founder of Active Politics, an NGO that aims to make politics more accessible, said he was hopeful of a higher turnout than last time.

“We believe that once you increase voter turnout, no matter which party goes to power, they will feel more responsibility towards the people, towards the institutions,” he said. “And once we get higher voter turnout, the power of manipulated votes goes down.”

Others are less optimistic. Polls show Radev’s PB is leading with about 30% of the vote but is likely to fall far short of an outright majority, meaning he will probably have to form a coalition that could well end prematurely, leading to yet another election.

Keranov said: “Honestly, I highly doubt that these elections right now will produce any real change.”

Tanev, however, cautioned that ousting an entrenched political elite was necessarily a lengthy process. “That’s not ‘five protests, one election and Bulgaria’s a democratic, normal country’,” he said. “No, that’s a very long-term fight. This election is a very good opportunity. We need to try to decrease the influence of this status quo.”