Will Iraq’s Shia bloc overcome obstacles to pick the next PM?

The recent visits by Ismail Qaani, head of the Quds Force, the foreign branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and US envoy to the Middle East Tom Barrack have added further complexity to Iraq’s political crisis.

Al-Mola denied any connection between their visits and the selection of the prime minister. He said Iran’s role is limited to supporting whatever the Iraqi political blocs agree on, calling it an internal matter and emphasising Tehran’s concerns for political stability in Iraq.

Political affairs researcher Saif al-Saadi said Qaani’s visit sought to ease regional tensions as Washington tried to block Iran-aligned leaders from forming the government.

Dispute over two-thirds quorum

Khaled Walid, member of the Reconstruction and Development Alliance, told Al Jazeera that at the Coordination Framework’s meeting on Monday, al-Badry’s supporters failed to secure the required quorum, which is two-thirds of the bloc’s members.

The disagreement now mainly revolves around the definition of the two-thirds, he said.

The State of Law Coalition argues the quorum should be calculated based on the number of Coordination Framework leaders, which stands at 12. But the Reconstruction and Development team argues it should be based on the number of the bloc’s parliamentarians.

Walid said al-Badry could not reach either benchmark. He added that his official nomination could be futile because his supporters within the Coordination Framework do not exceed 60 MPs, and he would subsequently fail to secure the confidence of parliament.

He further said meetings between al-Sudani, leader of the Reconstruction and Development Alliance, and al-Maliki have failed to reach a consensus as both sides cling to their positions.

He said the influence of “external factors” in forming the government has largely been diminished due to the war between the US and Iran, adding that some pressure remains, including regarding the US shipment of US dollars to Iraq.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal, quoting Iraqi and US officials, said the US halted the shipments and paused some security cooperation programmes with the Iraqi military, increasing pressure on Baghdad to curb Iran-aligned groups.

‘Compromise candidate’

Walid said some smaller political groups in Iraq have started hinting at the possibility of turning to a “compromise candidate” from a “second-tier list” that was previously discussed at the start of the talks over government formation.

Among the names being discussed in this list are Ali al-Shukry, head of the advisory body in the presidency; Qasim al-Araji, the national security adviser; Hamid al-Shatri, the country’s intelligence chief; Abdul-Hussein Abtan, former youth and sports minister; and Interior Minister Abdul-Amir al-Shammari.

Walid said the political crisis does not solely revolve around appointing a prime minister but extends to the overall management of the state and its foreign relations at a time of high tensions in the Middle East.

The selection of the Iraqi prime minister has turned into a test of the ability of the country’s political forces to reach a settlement that aligns internal consensus with regional demands. As internal divisions continue, a resolution remains contingent on mutual concessions that may lead to a consensus candidate or keep the situation open to further delays and ambiguity in the coming days.