Why Trump’s endorsement hasn’t been a ‘close out move’ for Louisiana Senate

Trump and his allies haven’t stepped in much for Letlow beyond his initial endorsement — at least not yet. The Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-aligned Make America Healthy Again PAC has pledged to spend $1 million to boost Letlow and oust Cassidy, who has been openly skeptical of the Health secretary. But Louisiana Republicans are still waiting to see if the president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., will spend any of the $300 million cash it has on hand.

MAGA Inc. has been tightlipped about its midterm spending plans so far and whether it will toss money to Letlow for the primary or runoff.

A MAGA Inc. PAC spokesperson and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

Cassidy, boosted by a massive war chest, has been outspending Letlow for weeks. His campaign has combined with the Louisiana Freedom Fund, an outside group backing the senator, to pour more than $14 million into the race on ads, most of them attacks against Letlow. Letlow’s campaign and outside groups have combined to spend just $4.6 million, according to the tracking service AdImpact. Federal Election Commission fundraising reports next week will reveal her fundraising capabilities and if she'll be able to keep pace with Cassidy’s haul.

Letlow’s ads have almost exclusively focused on her endorsement from Trump, rather than attacks on Cassidy. But he’s gone hard after her.

In recent days, Cassidy’s campaign has highlighted a video of Letlow praising diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives while interviewing for a job as president of the University of Louisiana at Monroe in 2020. They’re also hammering her for trading stocks of defense contractors amid the war in Iran.

In response to Cassidy’s DEI attacks, Letlow has pointed to his support for Biden’s economic stimulus package that included equity provisions to help underserved schools and businesses impacted by the pandemic.

Letlow told a local news outlet in March that DEI initiatives at the university had been “presented to us as something that would help students achieve the American dream,” but that she realized that the diversity push was “hijacked by the radical left and turned into indoctrination.”

“Cassidy's problem in this race is that he's trying to make it an ideological race. The problem with that framing is that he has spent the past four years trying to undermine the president,” the Letlow aide said, referencing Cassidy’s initial refusal to support Trump’s third presidential bid and call for Trump to drop out after the FBI raided Mar-A-Lago in an investigation of his handling of classified documents.

Part of Letlow’s challenge is that she hails from a rural district in north Louisiana far from the population hubs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Her district is more culturally aligned with the deep South and starkly different from the Catholic, Cajun and Creole influence throughout the southern half of the state.

“People haven't met her. She's almost invisible as a candidate,” said East Baton Rouge Parish Chair Woody Jenkins, who has not decided who he supports but used to work for Fleming in the Treasurer's office.

“When you're just meeting someone new in politics, and you hear all these bad things, you might have a first impression, but you tend to start having second thoughts,” he added. “And he's just relentless in it.”

And then there’s the Fleming factor.

“The two runoff spots are wide open,” said Matt Kay, Caddo Parish GOP chair, who described himself as an “anybody but Cassidy voter.” Kay said he was initially leaning toward Letlow, but after he saw her comments in support of DEI, he became interested in Fleming, who he sees as “more in touch with conservative voters.”

Fleming has largely self-funded his campaign, which launched last year. One of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus, he’s made inroads with Republican voters, especially in rural communities, with his stark opposition to carbon capture, which he says is a dangerous process that risks water contamination, costs taxpayers and violates property rights.

Both Fleming and Letlow have been aggressively attacking Cassidy for his impeachment vote, calling it a deep betrayal of MAGA and disqualification for the Senate. Louisiana is conducting closed primaries for the first time this year, a change that Fleming thinks will benefit conservatives like him.

“Number one, you have a mistrust of Senator Cassidy amongst Republican based voters,” said John Couvillon, a pollster who works on behalf of Fleming. “Number two, since he does have a relatively Republican voting record, that doesn't get him any great affections from Democrats either. So he's kind of the proverbial man without a political country.”

But some Republicans no longer feel that Cassidy’s vote in 2021 to convict Trump should be disqualifying, and they’re reluctant to relinquish his leadership positions to a freshman senator. They also point out that Cassidy, despite expressing concerns about Kennedy’s rejection of some vaccines, ultimately voted for his confirmation, along with the rest of the Trump Cabinet.

“I don't believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him,” said Kelby Daigle, chair of the St. Martin Parish GOP. “I think it's silly. We should move on. It's old news.”

Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

CORRECTION: The poll mentioned in Letlow's campaign memo is an independent survey.
This article has been updated to mention that Jenkins once worked in Fleming's office.