Why Trump decided to back Iraq’s prime minister-designate, Ali al-Zaidi

Finally, al-Zaidi allows for a wider bargain to take place. The cordiality of Trump’s congratulations suggests Washington may have traded its support for substantial concessions. This shift reflects a new reality: Because of the US-Israeli war, a weakened Iran has left its Iraqi partners with little room to manoeuvre or resist Western demands.

That brings Washington’s demands sharply into focus. A senior US Department of State official told the AFP news agency that Trump’s blessing is conditional. The US is seeking “concrete actions” from al-Zaidi’s government to distance the Iraqi state from Iran-backed militias before it will fully resume financial shipments and security aid. Resuming full support, the official said, would begin with “expelling terrorist militias from any state institution, cutting off their support from the Iraqi budget and denying salary payments to these militia fighters”.

The scale of what is being asked should not be underestimated. US facilities in Iraq have sustained more than 600 attacks from Iran-aligned militias since February 28 when the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.

State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said plainly: “The United States will not tolerate attacks on US interests and expects the Iraqi government to immediately take all measures to dismantle the Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq.”

Al-Zaidi has 30 days under the Iraqi Constitution to present a cabinet to the Iraqi parliament, where he needs 167 votes for it to be approved. He has promised to make Iraq “a balanced country, regionally and internationally,” a careful choice of words for a politician navigating between two powerful patrons.

With all that, al-Maliki’s political obituary seems to have already been written. The pointed intervention by Trump in effect signalled the end of his relevance, and al-Zaidi – a shrewd reader of the new regional architecture – knows it. In the coming months, US pressure on militia-linked powerbrokers is expected to intensify, and some figures will, in all likelihood, be quietly neutralised. The space al-Maliki once occupied is closing fast.

But major challenges lie ahead for al-Zaidi.

Washington has made its expectations unambiguous: It wants the new government to dismantle the Iran-affiliated militias. That could prove to be a difficult task but not impossible. Al-Zaidi could approach it from the economic side: cutting salaries paid from the state for tens of thousands of fighters, which would cause many factions to simply disband. A select few could be absorbed into the formal Iraqi army.

Another challenge is the paralysis of oil exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Baghdad may get some relief if Washington releases the Iraqi funds that were supposed to be transferred from the Federal Reserve Bank. This would be contingent, almost certainly, on progress on the militia file. Either way, painful structural adjustments lie ahead. A bloated public sector and an overextended budget can no longer be sustained.

In the coming months, the situation in Iraq will certainly remain tense. That would certainly test al-Zaidi’s ability to survive the complicated process of governing Iraq.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.