Wednesday briefing: How much longer can Keir Starmer cling to power?

In depth: ‘Nobody is quite in control of events, including the prime minister’

Keir Starmer delivers a speech on Monday. Photograph: James Manning/PA

To the naked eye, Tuesday was aquiet day in Westminster. Union jacks werehung from buildings in preparationfor today’s state opening of parliament, where King Charles will set out the government’s priorities for the year ahead. Normally bustlingcorridors and courtyards were quiet, and the public was largely cordoned off from the estate. But the calm scene belied the political hurricane blowing through government.

Keir Starmer is fighting for his political life as the crescendo of calls for him to step down – or set out an exit plan, at least – grows louder.

But despite the noisy opposition to his leadership from across the Labour ranks, little else is certain. It remains unclear exactly how many MPs want Starmer to go. More than 100 signed a letter yesterday opposinga leadership contest. So far, it appears to exceed the number of Labour MPs calling for him to quit.

How a leadership contest would work is unclear. The Conservative party has grown used to dispatching leaders in recent years – with rules that allow MPs to start a leadership race without an alternative garnering support. Not so in Labour. Even if one ofStarmer’s rivals manages to force a leadership contest by winning the publicsupport of 81 Labour MPs, each would face major hurdles to win the keys to No 10. The prime minister has indicated he would stand against any opponent – Burnham, Streeting, Rayner**,** Milibandor anyone else – and each of their respective paths to power is shrouded with risk. Here, we go through the obstacles.

The ‘king in the north’?

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is the most popular candidate among Labour MPs, say many observers, and the country. His supporters argue only he could unite different wings of the party and take on the charisma of the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage. But Burnham is not a member of parliament and anyreturn to Westminster would prove an uphill battle.

His team are understood to be scouring the Greater Manchester and Liverpool areas for an MP who would stand down and allow him to run in a byelection. A promised place in the House of Lords is a likely reward. But so far a willing volunteer is proving harder to find than hoped. On Tuesday, Marie Rimmer, the MP for St Helens South and Whiston whose seat was on Burnham’s wishlist, said she would not stand down, while backingStarmer.

If an MP does eventually stand aside, there is no guarantee that Burnham would even be permitted to stand by the Labour party as a candidate.

“Even if Burnham managed to find someone in the next week or so, we’re still talking about two months before he could even be in contention,” says Kiran. “The game for Andy Burnham supporters is to drag this out as long as they can. Really, they want to agree a timetable that allows them to do this.”

Then there’s the very real possibility a constituency would reject him.Reform and the Green party both surged in the north-west in last week’s local elections. For Burnham’s backers, timing is everything:“If Starmer said September’s party conference will be my last as leader and he would set the wheels in motion for choosing his successor, that would work for Burnham,” says Kiran.

The man in a hurry

Wes Streeting’s priority is speed. The health secretary is a skilled communicator, but he is not popular with the Labour party members who will actuallypick the next prime minister if a contest is held. On Tuesday, some of Streeting’s supporters with ministerial positions resigned – calling for Starmer’s exit.

Downing Street insiders said last night that the health secretary did not yet have the required support from the 81 MPs to formally launch a leadership bid, but Streeting and Starmer are set for talks today.

If Streeting’s challenge does materialise, it will probably come soon, says Kiran. The Ilford North MP faces a narrow road to power and is in a race against time to secure the leadership before Burnham can get back into parliament. But he faces further problems: a wafer thin majority in his constituency, a lack of popular support from his parliamentary colleagues and members, and his relationship with Peter Mandelson.

And then there’s the membership: many of Labour’s most leftwing members may have left to join the surging Greens, which could work in Streeting’s favour, but polling of Labour loyalists still shows him to be unpopular.

“Those who’ve stuck around are highly likely to be left wing and very socially liberal,” explains Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, in a recent interview with my colleague Aletha Adu. **“**But one thing we know about members – and Starmer getting himself elected in 2020 rather than Corbyn’s anointed successor, Rebecca Long-Bailey, is proof of this – is that party members also want to win elections … if Streeting can show them he’s the guy to do that, he still has a chance, even if he’s not their ideological ideal.”

The best of the rest

The rest of the pack have similarly bumpy potential routes to victory. Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner has long been rumoured to want to stand, but with a tax investigation by HMRC still trudging on, reports from Westminster indicate that she has decided against any move, instead indicating her support for Burnham. If she does not go for it, it would probably mean that the leader of the Labour party remains a man.

But that could open the door to others, says Kiran.

“If a leadership election is called, it all becomes very uncertain. There are others who might want to get in the fight. Ed Miliband might want to.” Despite failing to win power as Labour leader once before, Miliband remains popular with party members. “Or junior defence minister Al Carns might, too,” say Kiran, of the relatively unknown outsider. “And there are other people who we’ve not really talked about who might find themselves deciding to make a bid.”

When MPs return to Westminster today, they will do so once again in political chaos – in a country that has grown tired of drama. But predicting what is going to happen next is a fool’s game, says Kiran.

“The one thing that everyone knows at the moment is that nobody is quite in control of events,” he says, “including the prime minister.”

What else we’ve been reading

‘A place of great possibility’ … The Granary by Jesse Pollock at Bold Tendencies in 2021 Photograph: © Damian Griffiths

• Eddy Frankel looks back at 20 years of Bold Tendencies, which saw art placed in a multi-storey car park in Peckham and changed the way people viewed the potential of those kinds of spaces. Martin
• Do not miss our series on the 100 best novels, as voted for by authors, critics and academics worldwide. 100 to 61 will be published today. If you want to read any of the top 100, and support the Guardian at the same time, visit the Guardian bookstore here. Patrick
• For those of us of a certain age, Fame was one of the biggest TV shows on the planet. David Smith catches up with one of its stars, Debbie Allen. Martin
• Sammy Gecsoyler has written a shocking feature on the rise of road rage incidents against lollipop people. Patrick
• Judd Legum lays out the anatomy of a grift – the gold ‘Trump’ phones that have cost people $100 deposits, but have yet to ship any units. Martin

Sport

Southampton players celebrate at the final whistle after the Championship play off semi-final at St Mary’s Stadium. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

Football | Southampton reach the Championship playoff final after a freak winner settles Middlesbrough grudge match.

Golf | Rory McIlroy has revealed he heard rumblings of impending trouble for LIV Golf weeks before Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund confirmed it would withdraw funding for the circuit.

Football | Chelsea have held encouraging discussions over a move for Xabi Alonso but are keeping their options open and are closely monitoring Andoni Iraola’s situation.

The front pages

Photograph: The Guardian

“Starmer sees off threat for now as Streeting challenge fails to emerge” is the Guardian’s front page. The Times says “Starmer and Streeting set for No10 showdown” while the Telegraph’s headline is “Streeting to confront Starmer”. The Mirror simply writes “Stand-off”.

The FT leads with “Starmer throws down gauntlet to rivals as turmoil rattles gilts market”, and the i Paper says “Put up or shut up, Starmer tells his Cabinet rebels”. The Daily Mail splashes “Paralysed by Labour chaos”, while the Sun says “Crisis? What crisis?” The Metro calls it “Number 10 Doubting St”.

Today in Focus

The use of live facial recognition will expand surveillance into more public spaces Photograph: Alicia Canter/The Guardian

Is Big Brother watching you shop?

From supermarkets to corner shops, live facial recognition could be coming to retailers near you. Jessica Murray tells Annie Kelly about the AI systems increasingly used by the police and stores.

Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron

Ella Baron on Starmer in peril Illustration: Ella Baron/The Guardian

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

The Cockrow Bridge is giving wildlife a chance to cross, and allows biodiversity to recover. Photograph: Rob J Follett/Shutterstock

The Cockrow ‘Green’ Bridge in Surrey is reconnecting habitats split by the A3, which cuts in half the protected Wisley and Ockham commons, a rare lowland heath in Surrey that for centuries has been home to a rich pocket of biodiversity. James Herd, the Surrey Wildlife Trust’s director of reserves management, says “This isn’t just about big, charismatic species – it’s about reconnecting entire communities of insects that underpin the heathland.”

The bridge itself is a floating patch of nature reserve; its contents were excavated and transplanted from the heathland on either side. Herd, who advised National Highways on the project, says it “changes how the ecosystem functionality can evolve and function better, in a landscape where species can interact more freely”. By building a link, he says, “we’ve removed a barrier”.

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