UK-China ‘ice age’ thaws: Why the West needs Beijing

“This dependence is growing by the day,” Minnich told Al Jazeera. “Whether this is a good thing for the West or this trajectory is politically sustainable is another matter.”

Diplomatic reset after years of frozen ties

Getting on a better footing with Beijing is a priority now, say observers. “The UK cannot afford a purely adversarial relationship with China,” Jing Gu, director of the Centre for Rising Powers and Global Development at the Institute of Development Studies in the UK, said.

“It’s a pragmatic response to the UK’s own global economic position and needs, and to the changing winds of US-China relations under the second Trump administration,” Minnich said.

This rapprochement has been in the works since the UK’s governing Labour party swept to power in July 2024. Former Foreign Secretary David Lammy travelled to China for a two-day diplomatic trip in October that year, as part of initial efforts to thaw what Starmer would dub a diplomatic “ice age” between the two countries. Starmer’s own trip in January, to meet President Xi Jinping, laid the groundwork for deeper economic engagement, including a $15bn investment by British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and visa-free travel for Britons.

On Tuesday, China’s Vice President Han gave Cooper a warm welcome, along with a cultural visit to the Forbidden City, where she was shown around the world’s largest imperial palace complex by a tour guide before meeting her counterpart, Wang Yi, for talks at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

In his address at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, Han stressed the need to “intensify interactions and strengthen dialogue and cooperation for the sake of world peace and stability and for the growth of our respective economies”.

“Currently, the ongoing geopolitical conflicts are dealing a heavy blow to world peace and stability and affecting the prospect of the world economy,” he continued. Addressing Cooper, he said her visit would help “move our relations steadily forward along the strategic direction established by the leaders of our two countries”.

Growing economic ties

It’s not just the UK. A growing number of Western countries are seeking to reset ties with China at a time when global geopolitical tensions are causing havoc with supply chains and huge market volatility. This year, leaders and officials from the US, Ireland, Spain, Germany, Canada and Finland are just a number of those who have travelled to China in a flurry of diplomatic engagement.

US President Donald Trump’s trip to China last month signalled a shift in direction after last year’s “trade war”, in which the two sides slapped each other with tit-for-tat tariffs and China threatened to restrict exports of most of its rare-earth metals. Those tensions had been rising since Trump’s first term as president until he and Xi called a temporary truce late last year to allow for trade talks.

Also notable, however, was that Washington’s rapprochement with Beijing coincided with a tense period in US-UK relations.

Trump publicly took Starmer to task over his refusal to assist in the US-Israel war on Iran or to send naval backup to help the US reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, Trump’s outbursts over the Western response to the war generally have depicted the EU as a foe and NATO as obsolete.

For the UK, Trump’s unpredictability is what has tipped the balance in favour of reinforcing bilateral cooperation with Beijing, as Britain struggles with sluggish economic growth and global energy price shocks triggered by the war on Iran.

And there is “plenty of room for mutual beneficial economic cooperation” between the two countries, Minnich said. “The UK is unusual among major Western countries in that its economic strengths complement rather than compete with China’s.

“Unlike Germany, the UK is not heavily dependent on high-value-added manufacturing, where China is increasingly competitive. Instead, it specialises in things like high-value financial and other services in which China remains relatively weak,” he added.

Cooper is expected to fly to Shenzhen, a major technology hub, to discuss trade links as well as “the challenges of the future of AI as it rapidly changes our world”. This is significant because China is outpacing almost every country in the world in producing ideas and innovation in areas that matter to the UK, including renewable energy.

Last year, the UK and China signed a partnership agreement on clean energy covering academic, regulatory, industrial and commercial partnerships. During Starmer’s visit to China earlier this year, the prime minister announced that Octopus Energy, the UK’s largest electricity supplier by market share, had formed a joint venture with China’s PCG Power to trade renewable energy in the Asian country.

Access to affordable, clean technology – which China has bundles of – could help the UK reduce the cost of decarbonisation and accelerate the energy transition. “But this cannot mean passive dependence,” Gu, at the Institute of Development Studies, said. “Middle powers such as the UK are not simply choosing sides; they are trying to buy time – time to support growth, accelerate the green transition, rebuild resilience and keep diplomatic channels open while the wider strategic landscape remains unsettled.”

This is far removed from Trump’s strategy of eschewing ideas of carbon neutrality, and flogging US – and, now, Venezuelan – oil around the world instead.

Above all, though, said Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London: Both the UK and China want a thaw in relations.

“The UK wants it for economic engagement [while] China wants it as it can take advantage of the rift between Trump’s USA and the UK and other European democracies,” Tsang said. “Beijing can also do it on the cheap, with hardly any concession on economic engagement with the UK.”

While the West increasingly looks to China, therefore, a globalised world means both sides need each other. “China is just more aggressive in asserting its clout,” Tsang said. “If Western financial services were not available to China, it would hurt China’s economy badly, too.”

Lingering disagreement and suspicion

At the same time as all this economic cooperation, London is navigating tensions with Beijing on issues relating to security and human rights.

In a sign of lingering mistrust and ongoing concern about Chinese espionage, the British delegation was travelling with “burner” phones this week, according to a report by PA.

Claims of Chinese spying in the UK led to the arrest of three men in April 2024, with Beijing labelling the allegations “malicious slander”. Last month, a UK Border Force officer and a Hong Kong trade official based in London were the first people in British history to be convicted of spying for China.

Starmer’s announcement earlier this year that the government had approved Beijing’s plan to open a “mega embassy” in London met concern, as critics said it could become a hub for espionage in Europe.

China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war has also frayed nerves in London. In addition, the foreign secretary was expected to bring up the imprisonment of pro-democracy leader and media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who holds British citizenship.

Gu said some of these differences are “likely to become more difficult, particularly around technology, data, AI, critical minerals and supply chains”.

“The UK wants a stable economic relationship, but it also has to reassure Parliament, allies and the public that engagement does not mean strategic naivety,” the analyst added.

Tsang, at SOAS, said “fundamental differences in system and values remain, and they cannot be reconciled.

“Diplomacy is about fudging differences and focusing on shared interests to move forward for one’s country,” he added. “If done well, it can benefit both sides.”