Trump's Lebanon ceasefire takes Israel by surprise

As news of the ceasefire spread through Israel's northern communities, sirens blared three times this evening warning of incoming rockets from Lebanon.

In the sky above the northern city of Nahariya, Israel's air defence interceptors shot up to block them, triggering loud explosions. Ambulance crews said at least three people were wounded by shrapnel in the hours before the ceasefire took effect, including two seriously.

On the ground here – and across the country – there's scepticism about why Israel's leader has signed up to the truce.

"I feel like the government lied to us," said Gal, a student in Nahariya. "They promised that this time it would end differently, but it seems like we're once again heading toward a ceasefire agreement that solves nothing."

"We gave the Lebanese government a chance and they failed to uphold the agreement; they didn't disarm Hezbollah," said Maor, a 32-year-old truck driver whose house was hit by a rocket last year.

"If we don't do it, no one will. It's a shame they stopped. It seemed like there were significant achievements this time."

Israel has five army divisions in southern Lebanon, and only yesterday its chief army spokesman said they would continue advancing.

This ceasefire announcement has taken Israel by surprise – reportedly even within the government's own security cabinet.

A widely respected Israeli news outlet tonight described Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convening a security cabinet meeting with just five minutes notice, shortly before the ceasefire announcement was made.

Leaks from that meeting say ministers were not given a vote on the ceasefire.

To many, this is another example of Netanyahu bowing to US President Donald Trump's demands to halt fighting, even when the terms or the timing are not what Israel wants.

"A ceasefire must come from a position of strength in order to service the national interests of Israel," said the former IDF Chief of staff and Yashar party chief, Gadi Eisenkot.

"A pattern has developed in which ceasefires are imposed upon us – in Gaza, in Iran, and now in Lebanon. Netanyahu does not know how to convert military achievements into diplomatic gains."

Netanyahu – while framing the ceasefire as "an opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon" – also made clear that he was making few concessions on the ground.

He said Hezbollah had insisted on two conditions: the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, and a principle of "quiet for quiet".

"I agreed to neither the former, nor the latter," he said. "These two conditions are not being met. We are remaining in Lebanon in a thickened security zone […] We are there, and we are not leaving."

Iran has been demanding an end to Israeli operations against its proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon since agreeing to a two-week ceasefire with the US earlier this month.