Trump's hopes for an Iran peace deal come with caveats

Donald Trump's pause on a short-lived "Project Freedom" to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as he claimed progress had been made towards clinching a "Complete and Final Agreement" with Iran, soothed oil markets and sent hopes soaring of a breakthrough.

But expectations were soon tempered by the US president himself.

Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing a new proposal from Washington, after US media cited unnamed American officials as saying that the two sides were closing in on a one-page memorandum to end the war in the Gulf.

A source close to mediators in Pakistan told Reuters news agency: "We will close this very soon. We are getting close."

But hours after posting on Truth Social on Tuesday evening that he was suspending Project Freedom to see whether "the Agreement can be finalized and signed", Trump abruptly changed tone.

He said on Wednesday morning that an Iran deal was a "big assumption" and if it was not agreed, bombing at "a much higher level and intensity than it was before" would resume.

The president's threat came less than 24 hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the White House that Operation Epic Fury, the American-led military strikes of Iran, was over.

Later on Wednesday morning, Trump expressed optimism in a brief telephone call with PBS about prospects of an Iran deal, while acknowledging a breakthrough had previously proven elusive.

"I felt that way before with them," he said. "So we'll see what happens."

Trump also told PBS it was "unlikely" he would send US envoys for a second round of Iran peace talks in the Pakistani capital Islamabad.

Axios and Reuters had reported that Washington and Tehran were inching closer to a one-page, 14-point memorandum to end the war.

The plan would reportedly aim to bring hostilities to a close, which would then be followed by discussions to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, lift sanctions and curb Iranian's nuclear ambitions.

But Axios also reported scepticism among some US officials about the prospects for a deal and who would even approve such an agreement among the factions in Iran's leadership.

Iranian parliamentarian Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, wrote on X that the 14 points reported by Axios amounted to a US "wish list".

He added that Iran "has its finger on the trigger and is ready" if the Americans did not "grant the necessary concessions".

In the US, foreign policy experts injected a note of caution, too.

"Clearly, the administration thinks a deal is possible, given the way they publicly rolled out Project Freedom only to suddenly pause it hours later," Grant Rumley, a former Middle East policy adviser to both the Biden and Trump administrations, told the BBC.

"But we have been here before, and we've seen negotiations collapse at the last minute for a variety of reasons," added Rumley, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.