Transition timetable: what a Starmer autumn handover could look like

If the predictions are proved correct and Keir Starmer does announce a timetable for an autumn departure from Downing Street, the machinery of government will again kick into gear for a handover of power – but one that will be, by UK standards, relatively leisurely.

While many democracies build in lengthy transition periods – a defeated or retiring US president serves for nearly three months after their successor has been picked – the UK tends to do things at speed. A losing prime minister will typically get out of 10 Downing Street the morning after an election while the removal vans of their replacements lurk idling around the corner.

In July 2024, an election-wearied Starmer held his first press conference inside Downing Street, confessing to the assembled media that he was still getting lost in the maze of interconnected buildings that made up his new home-meets-workplace.

Two years on, he is widely expected to announce a date for his exit, perhaps on Monday. Andy Burnham’s team are understood to have pushed for the PM to stay on until September, a timetable that would allow for two main possible eventualities.

The first scenario – and this is very much Burnham’s wish – would be for the Greater Manchester mayor turned MP for Makerfield to be nominated to become Labour leader by an overwhelming number of his fellow MPs, with either no other challengers coming forward or else those who did failing to get the necessary support of at least 20% of the parliamentary party, or 81 MPs.

This would give ministers and civil servants clarity about a handover process and allow Burnham time to select his governmental team and fix his policy priorities, thus perhaps avoiding the slightly unfocused look of the early Starmer period.

Darren Jones, the cabinet minister who serves as chief secretary to the prime minister, charged with getting things done across government, is understood to have already met Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who is a key Burnham ally.

Jones would be expected to take a leading role in ensuring the work of government continues, particularly the complex and vital tasks of planning for the budget in autumn, even if the actual policy choices would be Burnham’s.