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The Guardian World1 min read
Officials hugely underestimated impact of AI datacentres on UK carbon emissions
TL;DR
UK officials have revised their estimate of AI datacentre carbon emissions, increasing it by over 100 times to 123 million tonnes over the next decade. This figure is equivalent to the emissions produced by 2.7 million people.
Key points
- UK officials underestimated AI datacentre emissions by over 100 times
- New estimate is 123 million tonnes of CO2 over the next decade
- Previous estimate was only 0.142 million tonnes in a year
The UK government vastly underestimated the climate impact of artificial intelligence, it has emerged, after officials raised their estimate of carbon emissions from the technology by a factor of more than 100.
According to new data quietly published this week, energy use by AI datacentres in the UK could cause the emission of up to 123m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂) – about as much as generated by 2.7 million people – over the next 10 years.
That latest figure replaces a previous estimate – since deleted – that claimed emissions would reach a maximum of 0.142 MtCO₂ in a single year.
The revision comes amid increasing alarm at the carbon impact of AI and when calls for the world to reduce emissions to mitigate the climate emergency are becoming increasingly urgent.
“We have a handful of years until our carbon budget is exhausted,” said Patrick Galey, head of investigations for the Global Witness climate campaign. “To waste what little bandwidth we have left – when 750 million people worldwide still lack access to electricity – assisting some of the richest men ever to hone their plagiarism bots would be a historic idiocy that future generations are unlikely to forgive today’s leaders for.”
The latest estimates were revealed in a revision to the UK “compute roadmap”, which sets out the government’s plan “to build a world-class compute ecosystem” for delivering artificial intelligence in the UK – a goal on which the government has staked its hopes for economic growth.
However, AI datacentres require huge amounts of electricity to operate – much more than the usual datacentres that store online data – and most of that continues to be generated by fossil fuels.
According to the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology’s latest estimates, the carbon impact of the planned AI buildout could range from 34 to 123 MtCO₂ – about 0.9% to 3.4% of the UK’s projected total emissions between 2025 and 2035. The lower range of the estimate would depend on greater efficiency in AI models and hardware, and faster decarbonisation of the UK’s energy grid.
Officials from the DSIT appear to have made the revision, first reported by Politico, after an investigation by Foxglove, an independent watchdog, and the Carbon Brief news site, pointed out they appeared to be a significant underestimate.
Q&A
What is the revised estimate of carbon emissions from AI datacentres in the UK?
The revised estimate is 123 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next 10 years.
How does the new carbon emissions estimate compare to the previous one?
The previous estimate claimed emissions would reach a maximum of 0.142 million tonnes in a single year, significantly lower than the new figure.
What are the implications of AI datacentres on climate change in the UK?
The significant increase in estimated emissions raises concerns about the climate impact of AI technology and the urgency to reduce overall carbon emissions.
