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New NDIS eligibility rules will cut 240,000 participants from scheme in four years, documents reveal
TL;DR
New eligibility rules for the NDIS are set to cut 240,000 participants over four years, according to internal documents. The Albanese government aims to reduce costs amid projections of rising expenses for the scheme.
Key points
- 240,000 participants expected to be cut from NDIS
- New eligibility rules introduced by the Albanese government
- Projected NDIS cost to reach $117 billion annually in a decade
- Labor plans to tighten eligibility and standardize assessments
- Expected reduction to 600,000 participants by decade's end
More than 240,000 participants are expected to be shifted off the national disability insurance scheme in the four years after new eligibility rules are introduced, internal documents reveal.
Newly released departmental modelling also shows proposed cuts to funding for social, civic and community participation will help achieve the single biggest saving of the measures the Albanese government is pursuing to contain the scheme’s ballooning growth.
The federal government is planning drastic changes to the NDIS after warnings it was projected to cost $117bn a year in a decade’s time – up from $50bn annually – without urgent and far-reaching interventions.
Labor wants to tighten eligibility criteria, subject all participants to standardised assessments and register more types of providers.
Announcing the reform last month at the national press club, the health minister, Mark Butler, said preliminary modelling showed the changes would reduce the number of participants to 600,000 by the end of the decade – about 160,000 fewer than existing levels.
But a document tabled in the Senate on Wednesday revealed the number of participants to be “exited” – or shifted – from the scheme to achieve that target by mid-2031 was 241,000.
The modelling showed participant numbers were forecast to peak at 817,000 next year before the new eligibility rules start on 1 January 2028.
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The new system – details of which are yet to be finalised – will determine entry based on a person’s functional capacity, rather than allowing access based on diagnosis alone, as was intended when the NDIS was designed.
The modelling revealed 33,000 existing participants were expected to be pushed off the scheme by 30 June 2028, with that number growing to 125,000 by mid-2029.
By mid-2031, a total of 241,000 people who were on the scheme prior to 1 January 2028 would no longer be receiving NDIS supports.
The modelling expects the NDIS to be supporting 598,000 people at that point, compared to the projected 944,000 had no changes been made.
Almost 350,000 fewer people would be on the NDIS as a result of either being forced off the scheme or denied entry in the first place.
The federal government insists those participants won’t be left without any support, with a new network of state-based disability supports planned for people outside the NDIS.
The documents also include a line-by-line breakdown of the expected $37.8bn in savings the overhaul is designed to achieve.
Q&A
How many participants will be removed from the NDIS under the new rules?
More than 240,000 participants are expected to be shifted off the NDIS due to the new eligibility rules.
What is the projected cost of the NDIS in a decade without changes?
The NDIS is projected to cost $117 billion annually in a decade without urgent reforms.
What changes is the Albanese government proposing for the NDIS?
The government plans to tighten eligibility criteria, implement standardized assessments, and register more types of providers.
What will be the expected number of NDIS participants by the end of the decade?
The reforms are expected to reduce the number of NDIS participants to 600,000 by the end of the decade.
