Neither US nor Iran can sustain strait of Hormuz standoff indefinitely

Exchanges of fire between Iran and the US demonstrate the serious instability of the situation in the Middle East. Though the US strikes late on Thursday were just “a love tap”, according to the US president, Donald Trump, the reality is that neither side can continue the high-stakes standoff in the strait of Hormuz indefinitely.

The US and its ally Israel demonstrated a comprehensive military superiority over Iran – taking minimal casualties in the 38-day war – but Washington has both failed to translate that into strategic dominance and allowed Iran to take control of the strait, driving up the oil price.

The most significant development this week was the collapse of Trump’s Project Freedom on Tuesday after just 50 hours. The unilateral US proposal had sought to create a safe zone for merchant shipping on the southern, Omani side of the strait using more than 100 fighter jets and several naval destroyers. Two merchant vessels took advantage.

It ended amid objections from the Saudis, who were not consulted before the launch. Riyadh refused to allow US access to its airspace and bases, concerned Project Freedom could end up restarting the full-scale war. It was also not discussed with major shipping companies and it was unclear whether it would be effective.

Richard Meade, the editor of Lloyd’s List, a specialist shipping industry title, said this week: “No major industry organisations that we are aware of have been approached by the US to set up any sort of briefing session.

“Security teams in the region remain unclear what’s happening and no ship owner I have spoken to in the past 24 hours has any confidence that this changes anything.”

Iran retains the ability to threaten and inflict damage on tankers passing through the strait of Hormuz and effectively halt all other shipping. More than 1,550 vessels remain trapped in the Gulf, while on Wednesday and Thursday no merchant ships transited the strait, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert with the Royal United Services Institute thinkthank, said: “Iran has proven to be a formidable adversary, in that it has demonstrated resilience that many who should have known better didn’t predict.

“Trump wanted a quick win, and was not prepared to commit the substantial military force that would have been required to dislodge the regime properly.”

Though its decision-making appears fragmented and the health of the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, still publicly uncertain, most assessments are that the Tehran regime has, for now, been entrenched by the bombing campaign launched by the US and Israel. CIA assessments leaked this week suggest it retains 70% of its missiles, 75% of its launchers; it may also retain half its Shahed attack drones.