Narendra Modi’s BJP win election in West Bengal for first time

Many had not been allowed to challenge their expulsion in time for the polls. Critics and TMC leaders alleged the SIR exercise was an attempt by the BJP to skew the election in their favour, which was denied by the government.

Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, said the BJP’s win in West Bengal was the culmination of a “seven-year project” by the party leadership and cadre.

He cited anti-incumbency and a strong dissatisfaction with TMC, and their interference in daily life, as a critical factor which lost them votes. He said BJP had run a much smoother campaign than in previous years, when they had previously been criticised as “outsiders” who threatened the Bengali cultural and linguistic identity.

“The BJP had a strong and well organised presence in West Bengal and Modi is seen as a charismatic leader,” said Verma. “This kind of result also wouldn’t have happened without a consolidation of the Hindu vote.”

A supporter dismantles an election billboard featuring Mamata Banerjee after her party failed to secure a majority. Photograph: Bikas Das/AP

For Verma, the outcome signalled that while the SIR exercise was unlikely to have swung the whole vote for the BJP, it nonetheless played “a marginal but still important role in these results”.

Monday’s victories for the BJP in West Bengal, Assam and the small territory of Puducherry signal a return to the strong political momentum claimed by the party prior to the 2024 general election, when they lost their outright majority in parliament.

It also dealt a further blow to the Indian National Congress, the main opposition party, which faced further losses and saw two of their allied opposition parties removed from power.

“Looking back at 2024, it now seems like that was a temporary setback to BJP,” said Verma. “They are returned to their dominant position. With very successive defeat, there is much more pressure mounting on the opposition, while the BJP looks even more invincible.”

BJP supporters celebrate their party's lead in the Assam and West Bengal state election results at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. Photograph: Rajat Gupta/EPA

Nonetheless, analysts emphasised the BJP could still face a volatile future, as the economic impact of the Iran war and resulting energy crisis continues to mount, with issues of mass unemployment remaining unresolved.

Monday’s results also made it clear that southern India remains one opposition stronghold that the BJP has yet to successfully penetrate. In Kerala, which has a long history of electing leftist and communist governments, the Congress party defeated the Communist-led alliance for the first time in a decade, while the BJP made small gains.

In a big electoral shock in Tamil Nadu, political newcomer and former film star C Joseph Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam party became the first new political outfit to gain power in the state for almost 50 years.