Mortgages, bills and jobs: Five takeaways from the Bank of England meeting

The Bank of England has revealed some interesting details on the ways our finances might be affected as the conflict in the Middle East hits the economy.

Here are five key takeaways.

Not that long ago, most economists were expecting interest rates to fall this year. The Iran war changed that.

Although the Bank held rates this month, it has signalled that rises could come later this year.

Because of "uncertainty around the severity and duration" of the war, the Bank considered a range of scenarios to determine how it will react in the coming months.

In the scenario the Bank governor put most weight on, with energy prices slowly falling, the rate-setting committee's deliberations suggest a rise or two could be on the cards.

In its most adverse scenario, which would see oil above $120 a barrel for the rest of the year and inflation topping 6% early next year, as many as six rate rises could be on the way, which could take the Bank's base rate to 5.5%.

Any rise in rates would increase the cost of borrowing and also the return on savings.

More than seven million homeowners have fixed-rate mortgages – that's 87% of all mortgages.

The interest rate on a fixed mortgage does not change until the deal expires, usually after two or five years, and a new one is chosen to replace it.

In its report, the Bank's rate-setting committee says that, over the next three years, average monthly payments for those moving on to a new deal are expected to rise by approximately £80.

But it stresses that is an average and there could be considerable variation, and that estimate will depend partly on the outlook for energy prices, which have a wide economic impact.

About 53% of UK mortgage holders are expected to see their payments rise, the Bank says, but around 25% of those who fixed at higher rates should see their payments fall, despite recent increases in rates.

Given events in the Middle East, it was already inevitable that domestic energy bills will rise this summer. The Bank paints a relatively bleak picture, even though uncertainty still dominates. In short, it will take the region – and the wider energy sector – a while to recover in any scenario, so prices will rise.

Energy regulator Ofgem's price cap affects the bills of millions of households in England, Scotland and Wales. For a household using a typical amount of gas and electricity, the current annual bill is £1,641. The Bank suggests this will rise "close to £1,900" in July and stay there for the rest of the year.

However, the peak will not be as high as it was following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Also, nearly 40% of households are on fixed tariffs for electricity and gas, higher than the roughly 25% of households with fixed tariffs when prices shot up four years ago. These households will be protected from higher prices until their contracts end.