More heatwaves likely as warmer-than-normal summer forecast

Meanwhile, the Met Office says "the chance of a wet season [summer] are slighly higher than normal".

While these long-range predictions give an idea of overall UK conditions over the three-month period of summer, in recent years we have seen more variability in rainfall patterns.

In 2025, while the UK average summer rainfall was 84%, northern and western areas of the UK were much wetter than average while central, eastern and southern parts were much drier with less than half of expected rainfall.

Droughts were declared across much of England in 2025 following a very dry spring, and hosepipe bans followed in the summer after demand for water increased.

Heading into this summer, Environment Agency data shows that most UK reservoirs are generally near or above seasonal averages, following a wet winter.

However, spring was extremely dry in parts of southern and eastern England where some areas only got around a quarter to a third of their expected rainfall.

Some locations in Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Dorset have had one of their driest springs on record.

Rivers are starting to fall "notably" to "exceptionally low" in some parts of England with Thames Water, Anglian Water and Yorkshire Water already noting stresses to water supply.

Any heatwave developing may put short term pressures on water companies.

Thames Water saw a sharp rise in water demand during last week's heatwave. It reported that "over one billion litres of extra water were used over the bank holiday weekend compared to the same weekend in 2025".

Meanwhile, 18,000 homes under South East Water had their supply cut off due to extremely high demand during the hot spell.

How are seasonal forecasts produced?

Seasonal forecasts are produced to give healthcare, energy suppliers and government agencies an idea of what the next three months might bring for planning.

At the cutting edge of meteorological science, they are made by studying large weather patterns – called teleconnections.

However, it is important to note that these forecasts give average conditions of temperature, precipitation and wind over a three-month period.

So, while both the Met Office and MeteoGroup are suggesting warmer than average weather this summer, fluctuations where certain weeks may be cooler is still possible.