A secret NATO command bunker in Charing Cross, London, is conducting war games simulating a Russian invasion of Estonia in 2030. The exercises involve British soldiers preparing for potential future threats from Russia.
Key points
NATO conducts war games in a secret bunker in London
The scenario simulates a Russian invasion of Estonia in 2030
British soldiers are participating in the exercises
The bunker is located in Charing Cross underground station
Military analysts warn of increased threats from Russia
Mentioned in this story
NATOCharing CrossEstoniaLt Gen Mike Elviss
Deep in Charing Cross underground station, in the disused terminus of the Jubilee line, a secret Nato command bunker has this week been discreetly at work. Dozens of mostly British soldiers were engaged in a war game defending Estonia from a Russian invasion in 2030, unbeknownst to commuters and tourists bustling above.
The secret chambers are behind two sets of normally locked, metal double doors. A red glow at the bottom of the escalator beyond is the first sign of troops below; next are mocked up newspaper covers pasted over ageing adverts. A British Nato force has deployed to Estonia they blare, in response to a Russian massing of troops on the border.
The entrance lit in red with a person standing at the centre
The entrance to the makeshift command post on a disused London Underground platform during exercise Arrcade Strike. Photograph: Richard Pohle
“The scenario you are about to see is very deliberately set in 2030 because that is where we see the threat from Russia to be at its most acute,” says Lt Gen Mike Elviss, commander of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, in a video briefing. If the war ends in Ukraine it is the point at which, military analysts estimate, a remilitarised Russia could be ready to attack Europe again.
The aim, ostensibly, is to show Moscow that for all Donald Trump’s bluster, Nato is ready, operationally at least, to defend its most exposed members on the Baltic. But a more important audience is a mile or so down the road in Westminster, where the Ministry of Defence has been locked in a funding battle with the Treasury for months.
A row of soldiers working on desks set up along a disused London Underground platform
Soldiers at work in the Ukraine-style bunker. Photograph: Richard Pohle
Remodelling the British army, it is said, will cost billions in investment, particularly on drones. It is estimated that it will cost £50m a year to get the arms industry building the required volumes of simple one-way attack drones, , and £500m a year to develop more sophisticated models, .
Q&A
What is the purpose of the NATO war games in London?
The NATO war games aim to simulate a defense scenario against a potential Russian invasion of Estonia in 2030.
Where is the secret NATO command bunker located?
The secret NATO command bunker is located deep within the disused terminus of the Jubilee line at Charing Cross underground station in London.
Why is the year 2030 significant for NATO's military exercises?
The year 2030 is considered significant as military analysts believe it is when the threat from a remilitarized Russia could be at its most acute, potentially leading to attacks on Europe.
Who is leading the NATO war games at the Charing Cross bunker?
Lt Gen Mike Elviss, commander of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, is leading the NATO war games at the Charing Cross bunker.
If there was a full-scale war in eastern Europe tomorrow, it is understood the British military would run out of drones in less than a week, able only to launch a few hundred a day. On this thinking, the British army is between 80 and 90% short of the drones it thinks it needs – for reconnaissance, air defence or attack.
The exercise, Arrcade Strike, is meant to show “the strategic reserve corps that you could have by 2030,” said Elviss. Three junior defence ministers are among those who visited the secret bunker on Wednesday, though the secretary of state John Healey, was tied up on official business and has been visiting Estonia, where the bulk of the UK 4th brigade is now deployed, as part of a related exercise.
Soldiers sat at laptops in the makeshift command post
The command centre can transmit 10 terabytes of data a day, equivalent to three months of Netflix. Photograph: Richard Pohle
Chairs, computers and screens crowd the underground hall, spilling on to a platform: a temporary Ukraine-style bunker, ready for a simulated war influenced not just by the war in Ukraine but also the recent US attack on Iran. In theory the command centre can house 500 people, transmitting 10 terabytes of data a day, equivalent to three months of Netflix.
What follows is carefully choreographed. To explain the mission, journalists attending are invited to put on virtual reality headsets, supplied by US technology company Anduril (US vice-president JD Vance is an investor), which display a 3D model of the battle plan. In this glossy, computerised vision of war, the first waves of drones are lost but the Russian positions quickly located and eliminated.
The operation is spelt out explicitly: a Nato force would use thousands of drones or more to lead a counterattack against Russian forces, revealing and knocking out enemy air defence, other positions and headquarters with the help of fighter jets and artillery all the way to St Petersburg from the border. It is not meant to be subtle; the rehearsals are conducted “because the adversary is watching,” Elviss said.
Military personnel look over a large digital map in the command centre
The command centre has not just been set up in response to the war in Ukraine, but also the recent US attack on Iran. Photograph: Richard Pohle
One intention is to visualise the British army’s project Asgard, a digital communication system that uses artificial intelligence (Hivemind, from US firm Shield AI is referenced) on the battlefield, linking any surveillance node to any weapon. The key purpose of artificial intelligence, is to speed up decision making, including target acquisition, from 72 hours to two hours, following the lead of the Israeli and US militiaries.
A virtual target is identified, though it is not shown how. The exercise includes a new deep strike unit able to hit targets 90 miles away with M270 artillery; meaning it could bomb Leicester if the rocket launcher was in Charing Cross.
Soldiers in a red-lit room with laptops and screens
Artificial intelligence is being used to speed up decision making in wartime situations. Photograph: Richard Pohle
Three bombing options are offered from a drop down menu, chosen with the help of artificial intelligence for the attack, based on weapons available. An icon is selected, a new screen loads, and towards the bottom, a red flashing fire button appears.
It falls to Nato’s military chief Gen Alexus Grynkewich, an American, to applaud the British efforts “to transform into an AI-fuelled command post,” in a video message. If the artificial intelligence has made a mistake during Arrcade Strike, it is not something anybody appears aware of, though in any event this is a demonstration.
Soldiers sit in front of laptops on the London Underground platform with a train route in the background
There are hints that the defence budget will soon be increased to close the £18bn funding gap. Photograph: Richard Pohle/Times/WPA
This is war in 2026 as well as 2030: a high-speed, hi-tech means of dealing death from a distance from the relative safety of deep underground. Meanwhile, over at the Ministry of Defence, the early hints are that next month, several billion more will be found to increase the defence budget to close an £18bn funding gap – and begin paying for the British army of the near future.
