Makerfield byelection is about more than Andy Burnham

“Somehow I have to accept that I cannot control this byelection outcome. But easier said than done,” another Burnham supporter said.

One MP said they were speaking to voters who had “only voted Reform a week ago” and trying to convince them to return to Labour. “That is a very big ask we are making of people. We know we are going to be facing a very nasty and divisive campaign.”

Reform won 50% of the vote share across Makerfield in the 7 May local elections, and gained 24 seats on Wigan council, including in two wards in the town of Ashton-in-Makerfield. Local Labour activists say while the Labour vote share held up, turnout rose in some wards with significant turnout from previous non-voters who came out to back Reform.

But Burnham has the advantage that many of those who voted for Reform in the local elections have also probably voted for him too – he won 66% of the vote in Wigan just two years ago when he ran for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.

A shopping centre in Ashton-in-Makerfield. The most recent poll puts a potential Burnham-led Labour just a couple of points ahead of Reform in the constituency. Photograph: Joel Goodman/The Guardian

Burnham has told those close to him that he had always wanted to fight a Reform-facing seat like Makerfield – the area where he spent his youth, close to his family home, and the place where his children go to school.

It might have been easier if he could have convinced Afzal Khan in Rusholme or Jeff Smith in Withington to stand down – both hold seats where the main challengers are the Greens. But in Burnham’s discussions with Josh Simons – who gave up his seat to trigger the byelection – the pair agreed that would not prove what they needed to show.

The Greens are still part of the equation. If they put up a fight in Makerfield, Burnham will have to prove that concept as well – that a changed leadership and direction can also win back Green voters who have been disillusioned by Labour – and convince them he is the man to defeat Reform.

It is – as Simons puts it – “the fight of our times” and Burnham can only change the course of history by winning. It is hard to think of a comparable electoral moment.