Makerfield byelection: Burnham’s decisive win intensifies pressure on Starmer to step aside – UK politics live

It was a bad night for Reform UK. (See 4.50am and 5.30pm.)

But the Conservatives had a very good result in Scotland. Severin Carrell has the story here.

Here are the Makerfield results.

Good morning if you are just joining the blog.

Andy Burnham was expected to win the Makerfield byelection, but he’s won big – by a huge margin. Here is Josh Halliday’s story.

Here are the full figures from the count.

Today the attention will focus on what happens next.

Keir Starmer has posted a short message on social media congratulating Burnham, but it is very much a holding statement. (See 6.14pm.) As Pippa Crerar reported in her comprehensive over-view 36 hours ago, Starmer has been wanting to fight to keep his job. But the scale of Burnham’s victory changes the balance of power between the two men, and the Burnham camp is now openly saying (albeit politely) that it wants Starmer to accept a timetable for a handover to the new Makerfield mayor. (See 2.05pm.) The Home Office minister Mike Tapp was the main Labour voice making the counter, Starmer-loyalist argument in broadcast studios overnight. He claimed letting Burnham take over would trigger “credible calls for a general election” – which no Labour MP wants – ignoring the fact that, when Labour called for an election after Liz Truss replaced Boris Johnson, and after Rishi Sunak replaced Truss, the Conservative government found it very easy to take no notice of said “credible calls”.

The mainstream commentariat view seems to be that it’s when, not if, Starmer concedes, and agrees a timetable for his departure. (See 4.50pm.) But the Burnham team have not said yet what handover date they want (Burnam probaby wants by Labour conference in September; Starmer would probably prefer by next summer) and there is no confirmation yet that Starmer will comply. He has the right to insist on a formal leadership election, and this remains a possibility.

It was a bad night for Reform UK. (See 4.50am and 5.30pm.)

But the Conservatives had a very good result in Scotland. Severin Carrell has the story here.

Lara Bird, the new SNP MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, (centre) and Stephen Gethins, the former SNP MP she’s replacing (second right) celebrate Bird winning the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry byelection at the Saltire Sports Centre in Arbroath. Photograph: Robert Perry/PA

Keir Starmer has congratulated Andy Burnham on his byelection victory. In a post on social media, he says:

double quotation markCongratulations, @AndyBurnhamGM, Labour’s new MP for Makerfield.

Voters chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate.

Others might say it was not Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism, but Burnham’s.

Kemi Badenoch is expected in Aberdeen this morning, where she will be celebrating her party’s first gain in a Scottish Westminster byelection for almost 60 years. (See 2.39am.)

Badenoch (or whoever manages her social media account) has also reposted a tweet from James Cleverly, the shadow housing secretary, celebrating two council byelection results which saw the Tories gaining seats from Reform UK. Cleverly said: “When people see what Reform is like in office, they change their minds about Reform.”

Post on X Photograph: James Cleverly

Here is Hannah Al-Othman and Josh Halliday’s write-up of what it was like at the Makerfield count overnight.

For an alternative take from the US, this is how the Wall Street Journal is reporting Andy Burnham’s byelection win.

double quotation markBritish politics is set for a fresh bout of chaos after Labour politician Andy Burnham won a special district election, allowing him to enter Parliament and launch a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer has not yet congratulated Andy Burnham on his byelection victory (to be fair – he may well be asleep), but Kirk Watson, the Democratic mayor of Austin in Texas, has posted a message.

double quotation markCongratulations to my friend @AndyBurnhamGM. I’ve greatly enjoyed working with him over the past three years as we created the Austin/Greater Manchester Sister City. He’s a very good, fun person. I am excited for his election as MP.

I was happy to be the self-appointed chair of “Texans for Andy Burnham”

Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, has published his analysis of the Makerfield result in a post on his Substack blog. It’s worth reading in full; here’s an extract.

double quotation markMakerfield is not just any old target seat. Two years ago, Reform’s 31.8 per cent share of the vote was the sixth highest in Britain. Indeed, its share was higher than one of the seats it actually won (South Basildon and East Thurrock, since you ask). If Reform is to win dozens, let alone hundreds, of seats at the next general election, it needs to win seats like Makerfield by a mile.

Since Sarah Pochin won Runcorn & Helsby for Reform in May last year, Reform has had high hopes of winning three parliamentary constituencies. It has fallen short in all three: Caerphilly (to Plaid Cymru for a seat in the Welsh Senedd), Gorton and Denton (to the Greens) and now Makerfield …

What is ominous for Nigel Farage is not just those bald facts, but the signs in all three contests of voters deliberately wanting Reform to lose, voting accordingly, and achieving their goal. Such seat-by-seat tactical voting at the next general election would cost Reform dear.

Neal Lawson, director of Compass, the progressive group committed to pluralist politics which is supportive of Andy Burnham, has issued this statement about his win.

double quotation markThis is a remarkable victory for the only Labour politician who wins both working- and cosmopolitan-class voters.

If Andy Burnham can make an out of favour Labour palatable in Makerfield then he can make Labour palatable across the country. This is an unmistakable mandate for wholesale change: electoral reform, the public ownership of essential utilities including water, maximum regional revolution. And this result has to mark the end to the hyperfactionalism that has dragged the Labour party down.

These are from Luke Tryl, the More in Common pollster.

He says, in the six weeks between the local elections and the byelection in Makerfield, there was a 23-point swing from Reform UK to Labour.

Swing in Makerfield between local elections and byelection. Photograph: More in Common

But he says in the byelection the left bloc and the right bloc were much the same size as they were in Makerfield at the 2024 general election. The movement was within those blocs, not between those blocs, he says.

Size of left/right voting blocs in Makerfield, at 2024 election and at byelection Photograph: More in Common

As Andy Burnham was about to give his victory speech, two of the independent candidates started criticising him and Burnham left the stage. It was not clear why. But he was just going to collect a copy of his speech, which he had left nearby, Charlotte Hall from the Manchester Evening News reports.

The Makerfield candidates lines up as the results were announced. Photograph: Gary Roberts Photography/Shutterstock

Andy Burnham did not take any questions from reporters as he was leaving the count venue, but he did say he was going for a pint, Iram Ramzan from the Manchester Evening News reports.

The Conservative party has isssued this statement about the Makerfield result. A spokesperson said:

double quotation markMakerfield has long been considered a safe Labour seat. The fact that it was even at risk shows just how unpopular Labour has become.

But there is no disguising the fact that this is a disastrous result for Reform. Makerfield was one of their top target seats anywhere in the country, yet despite throwing everything at it, they have failed to win.

Andy Burnham’s victory will now trigger a Labour leadership contest, during which the government will be consumed by Labour’s internal politics rather than governing.

The Conservatives were on 2%, and in fourth place, in Makerfield. At the general election two years ago, they were on 11% and in third place.

Here is a round-up of what some journalists and commentators are saying about Andy Burnham’s win.

From my colleague Jessica Elgot

double quotation markIt now seems beyond any doubt that Burnham will be prime minister. Labour MPs will look at that result - the consolidation of the progressive vote, the swathes of ex-Reform voters returning to Labour - and they won’t be able to wait long.

double quotation markOne (very knowledgeable!) Labour MP told me a week after the campaign launch that they were confident @AndyBurnhamGM would get more than @joshsimonsmp majority. I always kept it in the back of my mind. It was actually almost double.

From Patrick Maguire from the Times

double quotation markAndy Burnham is going to be prime minister and he is going to be prime minister soon. He is now the only electoral show in town for the Labour Party. The only question now is how quickly others arrive on this plane of reality.

From Emily Maitlis from the News Agents podcast

double quotation markMakerfield: Burnham has increased his party’s share of the vote astonishingly - with the help of tactical voting from Lib Dem’s , Greens and very possibly Tories too.

double quotation markBefore this result - one current cabinet member told me that they would simply not allow “ a Burnham coronation “ and would feel the need to throw their hat into the ring if it were headed that way. I wonder if that still stands with the scale of this result ? #Makerfield

From Ben Ansell, a politics professor

double quotation markIncreasingly likely we won’t see PM Nigel Farage. That was a poor result for Reform in Makerfield. And a Tory win in Aberdeen South on top.

From Luke Tryl, the More in Common pollster

double quotation markNearly a 10,000 majority that’s a seismic result for Labour, if the proof of concept was winning on hostile turf Burnham has done it, uniting the left vote and holding Reform to under 3 pts higher than at the General Election.

double quotation markThink this is unarguably Reform’s worst night since General Election.

1. Barely any increase in their vote share in Makerfield. 20pt Labour win in a seat that was one of their best second places in 2024.

2. Tories show proof of life and even momentum in battle for the right with Aberdeen South win

3. Restore Britain take 7%, replicated elsewhere in fragmented politics Reform’s path to govt becomes very very hard.

From the New Statesman’s Ben Walker

double quotation markNo poll had Burnham doing as well as this or Reform as worse. Off the charts.

From ITV’s Paul Brand

double quotation markAside from the specific circumstances of Makerfield and Andy Burnham’s personal profile, a pattern is emerging in recent by-elections… Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton, Makerfield… the tactical vote to keep Reform ‘out’ is being mobilised with significant impact. Tactical voting is cemented as a defining feature of our politics.

From Adam Payne from PoliticsHome

double quotation markThat’s just a staggering result for Burnham. He hasn’t just ‘taken on’ Reform, he’s smashed them, uniting the progressive vote behind him. Remove the Restore Britain % and it still wouldn’t have been close. In terms of his electoral pitch to Labour MPs, nobody else comes close.

In its initial assessment of Andy Burnham’s victory on the BBC, Prof Sir John Curtice, the corporation’s lead elections analyst, said that, although Burnham won handsomely, that did not necessarily mean he would be able to achieve a “dramatic” change in Labour’s standing in the polls.

Curtice explained:

double quotation markCan this be replicated elsewhere? First thing to note, between them the Conservatives, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats got no more than 3% of the vote.

I think one has to say that there are two crucial elements to Mr Burnham’s success. The first is the apparent readiness of those who are minded to vote for parties other than Reform, or indeed Restore Britain, their readiness to fall in and vote for Mr Burnham.

The second element of Mr Burnham’s success is that in a sense he was riding two horses at once. He was both riding as the person who was trying to appeal to the traditional Labour vote … and he was also able to appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer.

The question you have to ask yourself is when Mr Burnham becomes prime minister, how easy will that trick be to repeat? Because once he’s his own man, he’s not going to be able to campaign against himself in the way he’s campaigned against Keir Starmer.

Bear in mind the fact that because he is so popular within Manchester, the extent to which his popularity can be extended across the whole of the country. All of this is for Mr Burnham to prove – it looks as if he will get the opportunity to prove it but I don’t think we should assume that there is going to be suddenly a dramatic change in the standing of the Labour party in the national opinion polls.

Curtice also said he thought the Lib Dem share of the vote, at 0.4%, was the party’s lowest ever in a byelection.

Andy Burnham shaking hands with a supporter after his victory was announced. Photograph: Temilade Adelaja/Reuters

Andy Burnham’s victory speech – a concise summary of themes he has set out before, encapsulated in the idea that under his leadership government policy would in future be determined by the “Makerfield test” (see 3.20pm) – was quite powerful, for anyone still up to watch it, but tonight what matters are the numbers, not the words.

Earlier this week the Spectator was speculating whether Burnham’s lead over Reform UK would be in the low single digits or the high single digits. (See 10.02pm.) There was much talk of whether, if he did win, his support would outnumber the combined Reform UK/Restore Britain vote.

It turns out Burnham is 20 points up – or 13 points up if you wrap in the Rupert Lowe fans with the Nigel Farage fans. He achieved a swing away from Reform to Labour. In the current context, and in the light of what happened in the local elections, that is remarkable. Labour in particular, and progressive politics more widely, has been desperately searching for a Farage repellant for at least a year. Now they have found one.

We heard what’s coming next, because Louise Haigh helpfully set it out on the BBC; Starmer will be asked to agree an “orderly and managed” handover. (See 2.05pm.) Any negotiation ultimately depends on who has the power, and who doesn’t, and, in Labour politics, Burnham now looks unstoppable.

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