Iran, US agree tentative deal to ‘end war’: Your questions answered

Here is what we know so far:

Will Israel play along?

It is unclear.

The White House has not yet released the reported 14-point memorandum of understanding while details published by Iran’s Mehr news agency have not been independently verified by Al Jazeera.

While Iran said the agreement includes a ceasefire by Israel in Lebanon, it is not yet known whether this would also require Israel’s full withdrawal from the large swath of southern Lebanon that it occupies.

More than 3,000 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since early March and more than one million people have been displaced from their homes.

On Monday, however, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a statement: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I are pursuing a clear policy under which the [military] will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza for an unlimited period of time in order to protect the border and Israeli communities from there against jihadist elements.”

Some analysts said Sunday’s attack by Israel on Beirut’s southern suburbs was an attempt to gain leverage before the deal took effect and reinforced Israel’s longstanding position that attacks on Israel from Lebanon by the Iran-backed group Hezbollah would be met with attacks on Beirut. Iranian officials, however, suggested the attack backfired, claiming it accelerated negotiations with Washington and helped secure additional concessions from Trump in exchange for Tehran not retaliating.

On Sunday, the US news website Axios reported that Trump criticised Netanyahu, using his nickname when he told it : “Why did Bibi have to do a f****** attack? I was so p***** off. I let him know. He has no f****** judgement. I let him know that.”

“It shook it [the deal] up. It delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed to be now. Now it is scheduled for a few hours from now,” Axios quoted Trump as saying in a phone call.

Gideon Levy, a columnist for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, warned that Lebanon could become the biggest challenge facing the agreement.

“It’s very, very fragile,” he told Al Jazeera. “One of the biggest challenges of the agreement with Iran is the situation in Lebanon because the Iranians succeeded in creating a total linkage between Lebanon and the agreement, and now, really, I don’t see how it will work because Israel is still in Lebanon, has no intention to withdraw from Lebanon and, as long as the troops are there, there will be no ‘total ceasefire’.”

He described Sunday’s strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs as “ridiculous, childish attacks”, adding: “It’s very clear that Israel only lost in this game.”

How does wider Israel view this deal?

The agreement has intensified criticism of Netanyahu at home. Opponents from both sides of the political spectrum argued that Israel has failed to achieve its core objectives in the US-Israel war on Iran.

Levy told Al Jazeera the agreement is widely seen in Israel as “the defeat of Israel and the personal defeat of Netanyahu”.

“Iran was Netanyahu’s life project,” Levy said, arguing that Israel was “totally excluded from the negotiations” and was left trying to influence events from the sidelines.

Yair Golan, leader of Israel’s centre-left Democrats party, described the deal as “the culmination of many years of failure”, adding that Netanyahu was “ending his tenure with Israel’s enemies stronger”.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir argued that Israel is “not partners to this agreement, which does not safeguard our security. We must not withdraw from any territory [in Lebanon] that our fighters have captured.”

Early reports also indicated there is no mention of disarming Hezbollah, one of Israel’s stated strategic goals, while its efforts to separate the Lebanon conflict from the broader confrontation with Iran also appear to have been unsuccessful.

Israel and Lebanon are due to hold another round of talks in Washington, DC, on June 22 pegged to an earlier ceasefire that was not respected by Israel. Hezbollah has not been included in their talks.

Meanwhile, Israel’s other objectives, such as toppling the Iranian government, have not come to fruition either.

What will happen with Iran’s nuclear programme?

According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the reported 14-point draft agreement envisages a final settlement on nuclear issues within 60 days. Trump told The New York Times that a final agreement would limit Iran to enriching uranium at levels that “could never be used by the military”.

Asked whether the arrangement would mirror the 2015 nuclear deal that US President Barack Obama’s administration reached with Iran, which capped uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent, Trump said only that Iran would be able to enrich uranium “for nonmilitary purposes. Forever.”

Uranium needs to be enriched to 3 to 5 percent for nuclear power purposes. It has to be 90 percent enriched to reach weapons grade. Iran is believed to have about 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent, the point at which it becomes much quicker to reach 90 percent. The question of what to do with this stockpile has been a major sticking point in negotiations between Iran and the US.

The US president also warned that military action could resume if negotiations on a final nuclear agreement fail.

Will Iran have to curtail its missiles programme and rein in its regional allies?

One of the biggest questions surrounding the deal is what happens to Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its network of regional allies.

In a March interview with Time magazine, Trump said one of his objectives for Iran was “to dismantle its ballistic missile programme”.

When announcing that the US-Israel war on Iran had begun on February 28, he said the US would “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground”.

Trump also repeatedly linked Iran’s missile programme to its regional allies, saying military action would target Iran’s missile capabilities, naval forces and “terrorist proxies”.

During the war, US negotiating positions reportedly included demands for Iran to halt support for groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and a range of armed groups in Iraq and Syria.

However, according to reports from Mehr, discussions concerning Iran’s missile programme and support for allied groups have been removed from the negotiating agenda.

If accurate, that would represent a significant concession from Washington. Hezbollah, the Houthis and allied Iraqi armed groups remain active while no publicly available details suggested they would be dismantled as part of the deal.

What will happen in the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the agreement. Reopening the vital waterway, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies were shipped before the war, quickly became one of Trump’s top strategic priorities.

“Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorise the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorise the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” Trump wrote on social media.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council similarly said the agreement provides for the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, which was imposed during the conflict and which Washington said was intended to restrict Iranian trade and its ability to profit from the sale of oil.

Mehr reported that the draft agreement includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the blockade within 30 days and a US commitment to withdraw forces deployed around Iran.

Trump added that the strait’s reopening would be for the purposes of “mine removal” at first, leaving it unclear when exactly full-scale commercial shipping would resume.

Rockford Weitz, professor of practice in maritime studies at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, told Al Jazeera the first priority would, indeed, be clearing mines from shipping lanes.

“The shipping industry has to have the confidence to go,” he told Al Jazeera. “Once ships start flowing, a few will go at first, and then more will follow if all goes well.”

However, even under the most optimistic scenario, Weitz said, it could take months before shipping returns to normal levels. “This has been a much longer disruption in shipping than anyone expected,” he said. “The shipping industry is going to be hesitant at first to go fully in.”

The question of whether shipping will be able to pass through as freely as before the war also remains. Iran has raised the possibility of charging fees for ships to traverse the strait in the past. While tolls for passage are not permitted in natural straits under international law, countries through whose territorial waters they pass can charge for services rendered to ships.

On Monday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that Tehran had added the imposition of maritime service fees in Hormuz in the final moments of negotiations for the deal.

“The use of the term ‘maritime services’ means that the United States has accepted that fees will be paid to Iran,” it said, quoting “an informed source”.

(Al Jazeera)

Will sanctions on Iran be lifted?

Not immediately, it seems.

Sanctions relief is expected to form a major part of the next phase of the negotiations. According to Mehr, the draft agreement includes a suspension of restrictions on Iranian oil sales. However, there has so far been no indication of whether broader financial sanctions, including those affecting Iran’s banking sector, will be eased.

Trump told The New York Times that full sanctions relief could be withheld if Iranian authorities violently suppress antigovernment protests despite such a condition not appearing in the reported draft agreement, according to Mehr.

European countries have also said they are willing to lift sanctions but that will depend on progress on Iran’s nuclear programme. “Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon,” the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement.

“We stand ready to work with the US, Iran and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] to this end.”

What about Iran’s frozen assets?

Another controversial aspect of the agreement has been the release of frozen Iranian assets, which Iran said it needs to pay for reconstruction after US-Israeli bombardment across the country.

Mehr reported that the draft agreement includes the release of $24bn in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiating period.

The agency added that final negotiations would not begin until half of those assets had been released and restrictions affecting the Strait of Hormuz had been lifted.

US Vice President JD Vance said on Friday that frozen funds would not automatically be released once a deal is signed, adding that economic benefits would be tied to Iranian compliance with its commitments.

The issue has attracted particular attention after a Reuters news agency report that the United Arab Emirates was considering unlocking billions of dollars linked to Iran following weeks of regional instability. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs later denied the report.

Reuters said it could not determine whether the funds in question belonged to the UAE or were frozen Iranian assets held in Emirati banks.

One source familiar with the discussions told Reuters the arrangement could provide a face-saving solution for both sides with Iran able to claim it extracted compensation for war damage while Washington can insist it paid nothing.

What does this deal mean for the global economy?

Trump has repeatedly stressed the importance of restarting energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, posting on Sunday before oil markets were due to open: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

On Monday morning, financial markets reacted positively to news of the agreement.

Oil prices fell sharply with Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, dropping about 4 percent to just under $84 a barrel, one of its lowest levels since the war began. At various points during the war, prices had exceeded $100 a barrel, compared with the pre-war price of $66.

US stock futures also rose with contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices gaining roughly 1 percent and 1.6 percent.

Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at the banking group ANZ, said markets had already begun pricing in a deal before the official announcement. “While markets had already reacted late last week when President Trump indicated that a deal was close, actual confirmation spurred a further rally,” he told Al Jazeera.

“The fall in oil prices will provide some relief for central banks around the world who were worried about the inflation outlook. Focus now turns to the US Federal Reserve, which decides on interest rates this week.”

Despite the immediate optimism, economists warned that the economic effects of the conflict will linger. Shipping disruptions, supply chain delays and damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf are expected to continue affecting global markets for months.

“Production facilities of both oil and gas have been damaged in a number of Gulf countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,” Weitz said. “I think we’re definitely looking at months before we get to pre-war levels, and that’s with a very important caveat that assumes everything goes well, smoothly and stably.”