Iran eyes challenging stock market reopening after lengthy war closure

Banks, as well as the state, remain the largest financers of economic activity in Iran, a country struggling to deal with deep-seated issues such as chronic inflation and harsh sanctions.

The Central Bank of Iran often prints money to plug budget holes and keep the economy afloat, but this also keeps pushing inflation higher and degrading Iranians’ purchasing power.

The economic woes have only been exacerbated by the war and a naval blockade imposed by the US on Iran’s ports on April 13 despite a tenuous ceasefire agreed five days earlier.

During the war, US and Israeli fighter jets also extensively bombed Iran’s economic infrastructure, including petrochemical companies, steel producers, and mining and transport-linked firms that are the top performers in the capital market.

It remains unclear how much information Iranian companies will be allowed to disclose in order to provide a picture of the war damage, considering ongoing security risks and the lingering threat of renewed fighting.

According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Iran’s largest financial daily newspaper, some categories could be considered “commercial secrets”, including maps, production processes and designs. In this case, the company disclosing information may first submit the sensitive data to the SEO while avoiding full public disclosure online.

SEO Chairman Hojatollah Seyyedi told the government-run IRNA news agency last month that companies will be divided into three categories for the reopening: those with direct damage during the war, such as petrochemicals and steel producers; those affected through suppliers, customers, or subsidiaries; and firms affected by the general environment.

Bijan Khajehpour, a managing partner at Eurasian Nexus Partners, a Vienna-based international consulting firm, told Al Jazeera the reopening of the stock exchange will have to be “closely controlled” as there are “serious” concerns that investors “will engage in panic selling to generate liquidity”.

Khajehpour acknowledged that the government is under “massive fiscal pressure” but urged it to develop support measures to “prevent panic selling”.

Per a pre-existing limit set by Iranian authorities to curb fluctuations in the nascent market, most shares in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Fara Bourse over-the-counter market for securities can rise or fall only three percent from the previous closing price in one trading day. This can help slow a visible fall, but can also trap selling pressure.

What happened to the relatively tiny market during a two-week closure amid the war with Israel in June 2025 may also provide clues about what could transpire after the reopening later this week.

In the weeks following that so-called 12-day war, the main index of the Tehran exchange dropped by over 15 percent, before reaching a new all-time high at the start of 2026.

But the strong nominal rally was mostly a byproduct of rising inflation and asset repricing based on the rising value of the US dollar in the local market, not a sign of significant investment growth.