Intemperate Trump brings chaos and confusion to Iran talks

Donald Trump’s decision to send US officials to Islamabad for further talks on Monday with Iran just 24 hours after Iran once again closed the strait of Hormuz will signal to Tehran that the strategic waterway remains a bargaining asset beyond parallel.

It will also confirm in Iran’s eyes that the US president’s chaotic approach to diplomacy doubles the need for Tehran to act calmly and strategically – two competencies it believes he totally lacks.

Such is the distrust and fog surrounding relations between Iran and the US that no one can know whether Trump – after meetings in the Situation Room on Saturday – has once again decided to use diplomacy as a giant smokescreen prior to a further military attack on Iran once the ceasefire expires on Wednesday.

At minimum it is undeniable that the run-up to a proposed second round of talks in Islamabad has been far from propitious, partly because an impatient Trump repeatedly misunderstands the need to proceed sequentially or take account of the sensitivities on the Iranian side. Iranian state media reported on Sunday evening that Tehran had not yet decided whether to join.

Iran’s three demands before entering another round of talks were a ceasefire in Lebanon, an end to the US blockade on Iranian ports and progress on Iranian asset releases.

Iran and the mediators in Pakistan saw this as a traditional diplomatic step-by-step reciprocal process whereby one confidence-building measure from one side would lead to another on the other side.

As a result, the imposition on Israel of the two-week ceasefire in Lebanon by Trump was regarded as significant by Iran, and was due to lead to a reciprocal partial lifting of the Iranian chokehold on the strait of Hormuz – a step announced somewhat clumsily by the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in a tweet on Friday morning. In return it was expected that Trump would lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, and the momentum surrounding the virtuous circle would build.

But in a series of tweets on Friday Trump kept the blockade in place, claimed Iran had completely lifted the restrictions on tanker traffic in the strait, and for good measure said Iran had agreed to hand over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium to the US for safe keeping. In short, he gave the impression that Iran had surrendered.

The backlash that followed in Tehran on Friday was inevitable, and whether there was a genuine split between the foreign ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership or simply misapprehension due to Trump’s mischaracterisation of what Araghchi had said is unclear.