Friday briefing: ​As Israel’s coalition collapses, can its prime minister hang on to power?

In depth: A thorny, unsolved question cracks the coalition

Naftali Bennett (left) and Yair Lapid have launched a new party to challenge Likud in the Knesset. Photograph: Gideon Markowitz/Reuters

In power since 2022, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is the largest parliamentary party. That said, Scheindlin explains, no one expected his coalition government to last this long. “He is backed by two ultra-nationalist religious fundamentalist parties, and two ultra-orthodox religious fundamentalist parties.” Collectively, they hold 64 seats.

For years, Scheindlin continues, Netanyahu’s coalition government has been plagued by the same thorny question. “Can it pass a law to guarantee the continued exemption of most ultra-orthodox young men from military service?” This has long been divisive in Israeli society, and yet, the coalition has trudged along, without resolving it. To Netanyahu’s coalition partners, this exemption law is of paramount importance. “It has seen many governments collapse. This government repeatedly reached crisis point over it,” says Scheindlin.

On Wednesday, their coalition finally cracked. “Netanyahu’s partners said we don’t trust this government to pass that legislation any more.” A vote to dissolve parliament received the backing of 110 out of 120 lawmakers. A three-month pre-election run-up period is required by law. Late August is the earliest possible polling day, with a cut-off date of 27 October.

No guaranteed victory

Netanyahu remains the most popular potential PM – having topped the polls consistently since August 2024 – but that’s no guarantee of electoral victory. “He is coming in strongest in almost all surveys,” says Scheindlin, “although with slight variations lately.”

Made up of 120 seats, the Knesset is elected every four years through nationwide proportional representation. “Usually 30 to 40 parties compete,” Scheindlin says, “cross the 3.25% vote share threshold and you enter parliament.” No party in Israel’s history has won a majority of 61+ seats – so Netanyahu, like all those before him, relies on fragile coalitions.

“In all polling from the last two years,” says Scheindlin, “his coalition has been getting between 49 and 56 seats.” If public opinion remains as is, Netanyahu will fail to secure another majority.

Scheindlin also points out the remaining opposition parties which outnumber Netanyahu’s bloc aren’t necessarily more progressive. “Polling between 64 and 71 seats, these are dominated by what Israelis perceive to be moderate right, secular right, or semi-religious anti-Netanyahu parties.”

While Likud has remained steady at the top of opinion polls, the second-ranked party has shifted regularly. “It is always a party that Israelis perceive as centre or moderate right. In the six months before and after 7 October, it was the party led by [former senior minister] Benny Gantz.” Fortunes change fast. “That party is now polling way below the 3.25% threshold.”

Shifting alliances

The ever-changing political landscape makes allegiances fluid and hard to follow. Gantz has now been usurped to second place by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, though his new party – Together (Israel) – is not currently in the Knesset. “Israelis view it as the moderate rightwing party, though Bennett came from the far right,” says Scheindlin.

Bennett has achieved this feat by joining forces with once political rival, Yair Lapid. A former PM, Lapid’s past political persona was of a centrist, secular liberal. “Israelis perceive Lapid to be leftwing because he was the last PM to publicly support a two state solution, in September 2022. He doesn’t say that any more,” says Scheindlin. On the contrary, at the launch of their joint venture, Bennett declared: “We will safeguard the lands of our country and will not hand over a single centimetre to the enemy.” Lapid stood on stage with him.

In some polls, Together (Israel) are one seat ahead of Netanyahu, in most they’re a small number of seats behind.

There are plenty of challengers, too. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot was polling at six seats just a few months ago. That’s 13-15 now. “He is bereaved, having lost his son and his nephew in the Gaza war. Avigdor Lieberman is also a longtime challenger to Netanyahu, from the secular, nationalist right. He gets 10 seats in most surveys.”

Today, there’s a gap in the (relative) centre, after Yair Lapid joined forces with Naftali Bennett. “Then you have the Democrats, a merger of two former leftwing parties. Most Israelis view them as very leftwing; firm leftwingers view them as centrist.” With policies focused on affordable housing, trade unions and public services, they support a two state solution and oppose Israel’s occupation of the West Bank. The Democrats are polling about 10 seats.

“The two major Arab parties currently have 10 seats, and are still trying to decide their constellation. Will they merge? Stay separate? Form a new party? Jewish-Arab party, maybe? All of this is still in play,” explains Scheindlin.

A race wide open

While these opposition parties consistently garner a majority of seats, a path to power remains almost inconceivable. “The leaders from these opposition parties tell the public repeatedly they will not form a government which includes Arab parties,” Scheindlin says. “If they dropped this taboo, of course they would have a majority. But here is the catch, to announce that, the Zionist parties worry they would haemorrhage support to the further-right Netanyahu bloc, harming their chances.”

As such, Netanyahu may well cling on to power. “Many of his supporters believe in a conspiracy: that army chiefs and intelligence knew of [Hamas’s 7 October] plans, and let it happen, to embarrass the PM and bring him down. The belief in that conspiracy among coalition voters is growing over time,” says Scheindlin. “His polling, if anything, is getting a tiny bit better. His personal ratings are not at all bad. He has 45% of people who are always with him.” says Scheindlin, adding: “In the last election, his supporting parties combined won 48.3%. He doesn’t need to win a huge number of voters back.”

And polls do show 17-20% of Israelis remain undecided. “If the numbers remain as they are now, very small percentages could tip the elections. Let’s put it this way,” says Scheindlin, “This race is simultaneously extremely close and wide open.”

The end of Netanyahu?

Should Netanyahu’s majority fade, progressive parties would be in the distinct minority. But while the country would – in Scheindlin’s prediction – likely still be led by firm right-wingers, there would probably be some domestic change: “A less populist style, less divisive rhetoric, less targeting of civilian institutions. Maybe they would try to revive damaged diplomatic relations. They would like to advance the draft for the ultra-orthodox. Attacks on the Israeli judiciary may reduce.” Resisted by Netanyahu, an independent inquiry into what happened on 7 October would “almost certainly be established … That will be a huge focus on the campaign.”

“But least likely to change” Scheindlin continues, “is policy towards Palestinians.” She points to the role of Naftali Bennett – who would be at the heart of any new government and had a leading role in the Judea and Samaria Settlement Council before going into politics, an umbrella organisation for Israeli settlements in the illegally occupied West Bank. “He is dead set against a Palestinian state,” says Scheindlin.

“This different government might say we need to start ending wars, but not through anything that looks like concessions.” The aim, says Scheindlin, would be “to turn down the volume on the Palestinian issue to avoid international pressure. In many ways, it would be window dressing.” This is more than an educated guess, Scheindlin says: it’s what happened when current opposition parties governed in 2021/22.

Whichever outcome materialises, Scheindlin suggests, “the underlying problems as they relate to the Palestinians: occupation, self-determination, a two-state solution? I have a hard time seeing that changing.” Still, she accepts, the unexpected might just happen.

“Maybe a government with the range of ideologies currently found in the opposition parties – under sustained international pressure from multiple sides – could just find itself in the perfect storm for change.”

What else we’ve been reading

Liz Lawrence … ‘It’s culturally finding a space for the shittier things’. Photograph: Steve Gullick

• Liz Lawrence is thoughtful talking about how she came back to music after her sister died, and made a record exploring her need for songs that explore the “open and frank sadness” of grief. Martin
• The latest instalment in Sam Wollaston’s Abandoned Britain series makes remarkable reading. He meets residents on the Carpenters estate in Newham, left in limbo during council “regeneration”. Michael
• Simon Hattenstone’s interview with national treasure Derek Jacobi – with Derek’s husband Richard Clifford chipping in – is an absolute joy. Martin
• Have you been searching for somewhere to hang out with 15,000 mannequins? You’re in luck. Mannakin Hall near Grantham offers you precisely this, one of 10 gloriously odd British sites to visit this bank holiday weekend. Michael
• For Huck magazine, Miss Rosen explores some recently rediscovered photographs of the legendary period of New York’s counterculture centre, the Chelsea Hotel. Martin

Sport

Alec Segaert made his telling move 3km from the line. Photograph: Luca Zennaro/EPA

Cycling | Alec Segaert won stage 12 of the Giro d’Italia on Thursday and his Bahrain Victorious teammate Afonso Eulálio snatched bonus seconds in the intermediate sprint to extend his overall lead.

Football | Southampton have provided footage of their training sessions to the English Football League’s independent disciplinary commission to try to prove they gained no material advantage from the Spygate saga.

Football | Eight nations have won the World Cup. An expanded field and a gruelling schedule means a new champion could emerge from the pack this summer.

The front pages

Photograph: The Guardian

“London mayor blocks Met’s AI deal with controversial tech firm” is the Guardian’s splash today. The FT says “SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs to trigger Wall Street trading frenzy”.

On UK politics, the Telegraph says “Rayner in election fraud row”, while the Mail’s take is “Polling fraud row in Rayner constituency”. The Express says “Stop running away from the Brexit question Andy!”

The i Paper leads with “Police widen inquiry into Andrew to include sexual misconduct claims”, while the Mirror has “Andrew cops in sex crime probe” and Metro says “Immigration: it’s tit for stat”.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now

In the firing line … Fares Fares steps up to the role of faded actor, George Fahmy, drawn in to front regime propaganda in Eagles of the Republic. Photograph: Yigit Eken

Film **Eagles of the Republic| ★★★★☆**In the last of his “Cairo trilogy”, the Swedish-Egyptian film-maker Tarik Saleh turns a satirical lens to the glamorous world of the movies in this seductive black-comic political thriller set in present-day Egypt. It is a rackety, despairing, funny film with something of Billy Wilder, or István Szabó’s Mephisto, or Bertolucci’s fascism parable The Conformist. Saleh’s lead is his longtime leading man Fares Fares, playing the ageing movie star, George Fahmy – a pampered idol comfortable doing cheesy crowd-pleasing potboilers, but now bullied into performing in a sinister government-sponsored biopic of the president (with news footage of the current president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, cheekily cut in). Poor, preening George finds himself ordered to attend dinner parties and soirees convened by the reactionary junta – the self-styled “eagles of the republic” – who all profess a feline, insincere admiration for his cinematic art. The actor flies high before a horrible and sickening descent. Peter Bradshaw

TV **The Boroughs | ★★★★☆**A retirement village Scooby gang of heroes take on a horrific creature in a series that is funny, tender and wise. The Boroughs takes its time to crank up the plot. It moves, you might say, at the pace of its inhabitants, but that is only to the good. While channelling the spirit of Spielberg, the series speaks, via monsters and electroplasm, to eternal human fears. Death is one – the fear of dying alone and friendless, after one’s loved ones, or after years of living in a terrifying, memory-less present – and then gives us comfort, that together most monsters can be defeated. Lucy Mangan

Games
Forza Horizon 6, PC, Xbox, (PS5 due later) | ★★★★☆
The Forza Horizon games have always been about drama. Not just the tension and excitement of racing, but also the sensory impact of the natural environment – the sun rising over a dense city, rain clouds hovering above a valley floor. So in many ways, Forza Horizon 6 is a continuation of that and fans have been waiting years for Japan and now here it is: the whole country, reduced, remixed and repackaged as a driving paradise. It does not revolutionise what this series has always done, there is nothing radical here to attract a whole new base of players. But that’s fine. There is no other way most of us will ever get to sit in a Porsche 911 GT3 and cruise into the Daikoku parking area with Yellow Magic Orchestra playing on the radio. Keith Stuart

Music Kurt Vile: Philadelphia’s Been Good to Me | ★★★★☆
Tap into Philadelphia’s Been Good to Me and you will find that Vile sounds as alarmingly great as ever, and more formally forward-thinking than he’s ever been. The album never labours its points or trades in anything so tacky as radical departures in sound or style. Vile’s music has always been about existence, but it’s rarely been this existential, and the songs’ hypnotic, elliptical structures create a stark sense of unease and unrest. It is, emphatically, a Kurt Vile record – loose, lush, ambling, aimless, and totally, deeply poetic, bruh. Shaad D’Souza

Today in Focus

The World Health Organization categorised the latest outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern. Photograph: Arlette Bashizi/Reuters

Are we heading for another Ebola crisis?

The Guardian’s global health correspondent, Kay Lay, and reporter Prosper Heri Ngorora, based in Goma, report on the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Cartoon of the day | Jason White

Illustration: Jason White/The Guardian

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Womble is only the second aardvark to be born at Chester zoo in its 94-year history. Photograph: Joel Goodman/The Guardian

An aardvark calf born at Chester zoo in April, and nicknamed Womble, is thriving thanks to the dedication of a team of zookeepers.

Womble was healthy at birth but its mother Oni wasn’t producing enough milk, so keepers began bottle-feeding the calf every two hours around the clock in a heated incubator.

Aardvarks face increasing threats in the wild due to habitat loss and hunting, and births are extremely rare in captivity – Womble is only the second aardvark born at the zoo in its 94-year history.

Zookeeper Sophie Tyson says: “Womble has gone from strength to strength and is doing brilliantly, so now lives full-time with mum Oni, and it’s wonderful to see them snuggled up side by side together.”

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