‘Foolish’ CSIRO job cuts will mean Australia unable to provide climate projections to global reports, scientists warn

Access is a computer-based model that draws on international and national data related to the atmosphere, oceans, land and ice to allow simulations of the future. Led by CSIRO, it provides high-level projections of how the country is likely to change under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

The model underpins climate information that scientists, governments, councils, industry, farmers and others use for more fine-grained analysis that can shape planning and investment decisions.

Jakob said cutting CSIRO’s climate modelling expertise would “remove a basic foundational capability” to prepare for the future. “Australia will no longer be seen as a credible contributor to international assessment of climate change. Full stop,” he said. “I feel angry. I have been a climate modeller for 30 years. It will mean I can’t stand up in front of people and say we’re giving the best information we can.”

A CSIRO spokesperson said its climate science capability would be retained.

“CSIRO will continue to provide climate data, models and scenarios to manage the impacts of climate change,” they said. “The proposed changes sharpen our effort by reducing activity in selected areas including atmospheric chemistry modelling, Indo-Pacific ocean dynamics and some operational support so we can better align our climate portfolio with our future science priorities, and deliver the strongest possible outcomes for Australia.”

But Hogg said there was a risk Australia may not be able to submit projections this year to inform the IPCC’s seventh major assessment report, due out in 2028 and 2029.

He said CSIRO had no plan for how it would continue to contribute meaningfully to future global climate projections beyond that despite Australia being the only country with modelling focused on the southern hemisphere. “That capacity will be difficult to rebuild. It would cost twice as much to get it back in later,” he said.

Jakob said the potential ramifications included Australia losing the ability to attract top international scientific talent, and having less capacity to understand issues such as what the melting of the giant Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would mean for the Australian coastline.

“We need to know how other countries’ climates are changing because they will matter to us … and there is a question of whether we can rely on other countries for information as we used to,” he said. “I think it’s a very foolish path to go down.”

While scientists were critical of the CSIRO decision, researchers – including some within CSIRO who spoke on the condition of anonymity – said the cuts were primarily a result of years of federal governments not increasing the agency’s direct funding in line with rising costs.

CSIRO managers are expected to secure 70% of funding from external sources, usually from industry or another government department agency, before a new research project is approved.

The Albanese government says CSIRO receives about $1bn in recurrent annual funding and that it has provided an additional $278m in 2025 and $387m over four years in the latest budget. The science minister, Tim Ayres, did not respond to questions about cuts to climate modelling capacity.