Florida is latest US state to enter redistricting war ahead of 2026 election

Florida begins a special session on Tuesday in what may be the last front of the redistricting war before the 2026 election, with Republicans trying to redraw maps to pick up more seats in Congress.

Lawmakers enter the session in Tallahassee cloaked in mystery, with no preview of a proposed map to consider and no clear path for Republicans to increase their representation in what appears to be a hostile year for their party.

After Virginians voted on Tuesday to redraw their maps, the nationwide back-and-forth redistricting between states with Democratic and Republican control has left the partisan balance for congressional seats nearly even. Donald Trump’s initial call for Texas legislators to add five Republican-leaning districts was answered by California redrawing its own map, and then Virginia answered changes in Missouri and Ohio with a new map that pulled four districts into expected Democratic gains.

Lawmakers in Florida postponed earlier consideration of a mid-decade redistricting while waiting for a ruling on a US supreme court case – Louisiana v Callais – which may invalidate parts of the Voting Rights Act and offer more room for mapmakers to make changes. But that ruling has yet to be issued.

The filing deadline to run for Congress in Florida is 12 June, and party primary votes are held on 18 August.

With little time left to make changes, the staff of Republican governor Ron DeSantis has reportedly been drafting a map in secret to be presented on Tuesday. A memo from state senate president Ben Albritton to members said “the senate is not drafting or producing a map for introduction during the special session. It is our expectation that … a proposal will be transmitted from the governor’s office to the senate for our consideration.”

Florida currently sends 20 Republicans and eight Democrats to Congress. Three of those Republicans – Cory Mills in central Florida, Anna Paulina Luna in St Petersburg and María Elvira Salazar in Miami – are in relatively soft Republican districts and are targets of Democratic congressional leadership for a serious contest.

Donald Trump’s favorability has fallen with the rise of gasoline prices, the Iran war, reaction to the Epstein files revelations and pratfalls by his administration. Increasing the number of Republican-dominated districts would require weakening existing Republican districts, a prospect that may lose some seats while gaining others.

Alex Alvarado, an influential Republican political analyst for the Civic Data and Research Institute, argued in a memo that an aggressive redistricting effort would result in three additional competitive districts but no net gain for Republicans.