Donald Trump has indefinitely extended the naval blockade of Iran, recognizing the risks of US military escalation. A third carrier strike group and additional US marines are en route to the Middle East.
Key points
Trump extended the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely
Third US carrier strike group is arriving in the Middle East
2,500 US marines are sailing from the Pacific
Kharg Island is vital for Iran's oil exports
Seizing Kharg poses logistical challenges for US forces
Mentioned in this story
US militaryKharg Island
Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump’s decision to extend the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely may do nothing to reduce world oil prices – but it could amount to a recognition that further US military escalation in breach of the nominal ceasefire comes with greater risk against a regime disinclined to surrender.
In theory, Trump’s military options are increasing. A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, is due to arrive in the Middle East within days after rounding South Africa. A second taskforce of 2,500 US marines is sailing from the Pacific and is due to arrive by the end of April.
The extra forces may only be available for a short period, creating an extra pressure for their deployment. It is not clear how much longer the USS Gerald R Ford, now in the Red Sea, can remain given the aircraft carrier has been at sea for over 300 days.
A possibility is that the US tries to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, where 90% of the country’s oil exports are loaded, with the 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, who have been in the Middle East since the beginning of the month, or with US marines not engaged in enforcing the blockade.
But nothing additional would be gained by seizing Kharg, or indeed any other smaller island in the strait of Hormuz relative to the established US blockade. Capturing Kharg may be relatively straightforward given the overwhelming US military might but holding it, and keeping troops supplied and out of danger for months, is more complex.
“I suspect they would rather threaten an airborne assault or amphibious assault than actually conduct one,” says Matthew Savill from the Royal United Services Institute. “The US has the capabilities and firepower to do it. But would it be worth it?”
The 38 days of bombing by the US and Israel of Iran were one-sided in simple military terms, with Iran’s most effective retaliation against Gulf states. The US carried out 13,000 strikes on Iran, losing one F-15 fighter over the country and two transport aircraft in the ensuing rescue. Israel’s air force dropped 18,000 bombs in 1,000 waves.
Even so, Iran’s military capability is not exhausted according to leaked US intelligence assessments. Half of Iran’s missiles and launchers remain intact on one estimate, a similar proportion of its Shahed attack drones, and on Wednesday Iran was able to
Q&A
Why did Trump extend the naval blockade of Iran?
Trump's decision to extend the blockade is seen as an acknowledgment that further US military escalation poses greater risks.
What military forces are being deployed to the Middle East?
A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, and a taskforce of 2,500 US marines are being deployed to the region.
What is the significance of Kharg Island in relation to the blockade?
Kharg Island is crucial as it handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, making it a potential target for US military operations.
What challenges would the US face in seizing Kharg Island?
While capturing Kharg Island may be straightforward, maintaining control and supplying troops would present significant logistical challenges.
More than 3,000 Iranians have been killed, including the country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, but the number of casualties is not overwhelming. The country’s regime remains intact and regards itself as undefeated; its Revolutionary Guard, now in the driving seat, in no mood for compromise.
It is not obvious how a resumption of US-Israeli bombing can alter the political dynamic, at least for now. Earlier in the month Trump tried to bully Tehran by threatening to attack power plants, bridges and desalination facilities, an extreme threat that was widely condemned and viewed by many legal experts as a war crime.
Widespread devastation of Iran’s basic infrastructure would be enduring, but it is not obvious it would produce a willingness to accept US peace terms. Further strikes on Iranian leaders deemed more hardline could easily be counterproductive, adding to the political stasis rather than resolving it. Nor will return to bombing encourage protesters to return to the streets either.
Satellite image of Kharg Island
Seizing Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran’s oil exports are loaded, may not break the stalemate in the conflict, according to an analyst. Photograph: EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY/AFP/Getty Images
Iran’s modern history is defined by an anti-imperialist struggle with the US and beyond trying to inflict economic costs in the strait of Hormuz and the Gulf, Tehran has few good options other than to simply trying to outlast Trump’s attention span.
“This Iranian regime is so incredibly ideological. The actors that are in power are very committed to ‘wining the war’ and appear willing to suffer extreme economic damage to do so,” says Brian Carter, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
There is no prospect of a broader ground invasion either: the US may have over 50,000 troops in the region but the number is trivial given Iran’s 92m population. Its army, the Artesh, has a total size of 350,000 (including 220,000 conscripts); the Revolutionary Guard a further 150,000 according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Recent studies also indicate that US capabilities are not limitless. This week the US Center for Strategic and International Studies published estimates of US munitions inventories in the wake of Operation Epic Fury, the bombing of Iran. It estimated the US fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles, at $2.6m a time, out of 3,100 and over 1,000 JASSM air to ground missiles (also costing $2.6m each) out of 4,400.
Air defence systems are particularly affected. Somewhere between 190 and 290 Thaad ballistic missile interceptors were used out of 360, at a cost of $15.5m each, and about half of the Pac-3 Patriot missiles, which cost $3.9m and are in high demand globally. High sophistication missiles can take four to five years to replace, and the US has commitments to Taiwan and in east Asia that it wants to retain munitions for.
Military logic suggests that the battle of the blockades will go on for some time yet as both the US and Iran try to assert control of the strait of Hormuz, and to see which country recoils first from the economic costs inflicted. But in a tense situation, escalation can easily occur: on Thursday an irascible Trump threatened to blow up any small Iranian boats caught laying mines.
