Early results show One Nation on track to win Farrer byelection

One Nation appeared on track for its first ever lower house victory on Saturday night, with early results showing Pauline Hanson’s insurgent party taking the lead in the Farrer byelection.

Irrigator David Farley looked well placed to beat independent Michelle Milthorpe in the closely watched race, confirming One Nation’s dramatic rise in public support since last year’s federal election and further weakening Angus Taylor’s depleted Liberal party.

Early booths in small rural communities showed strong support for One Nation, with the Liberal voting tanking, compared with last year’s federal election.

Milthorpe’s vote was also down, but is expected to be stronger around Albury, the main population centre in the seat.

Picking up the regional NSW electorate held by former opposition leader Sussan Ley for a generation, it will be the first time voters have handed One Nation a lower house seat in an election or byelection.

Hanson, elected to Parliament as an independent in 1996, founded the populist party in 1997, while Nationals defector Barnaby Joyce One Nation last year while already an MP.

The Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson were never considered a strong chance to win, despite the Coalition parties holding Farrer for its entire 76 year history. Labor opted not to contest the race.

One Nation’s victory comes after months of the party’s support growing beyond 20% in opinion polls.

But Farley’s road to becoming One Nation’s newest MP has been rocky in recent weeks amid revelations the Narrandera-based agribusiness consultant was once a Nationals branch member and even considered standing for Labor.

Guardian Australia revealed on Friday the extent of his earlier cooperation with the independent movement, as minders sought to shield Hanson and Farley from media questions.

One Nation has blocked media outlets including the Guardian from attending its election night event. Hanson has regularly bristled at critical coverage of One Nation.

Farley started the day at Albury Public School shortly after 8am.

Missing from Farley’s early morning walk to the ballot box was his party leader, but Farley said he would see Hanson later.

She flew into the seat in the final days of the campaign in a new private plane donated by supporters linked to mining billionaire Gina Rinehart.

“Flight risk? No,” he said, when asked about the moniker Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, has given him after reports of Farley’s early dalliances with the Nationals, Labor and independent movement.

Many of the polling stations around Albury were packed with volunteers in orange shirts. Only a few shades of difference distinguished both Milthorpe and One Nation’s supporters.

Out in Howlong, 25 minutes from Albury’s centre, Paige, 33, voted for Milthorpe despite One Nation’s surging popularity.

The young mum, who lives in the small town, said she felt nervous about the prospect of a One Nation candidate because of “what is happening on a international stage with radicalised ideas”.

“I would like to see an independent get into parliament and hold some of these bigger parties accountable,” she said.

76-year-old John Lacovich with his dog, Patch, at the Thurgoona Community Centre on the Farrer byelection. NSW, Australia on 9 May 2026 Photograph: Sarah Basford Canales/The Guardian

John Lacovich, 76, rolled into the Thurgoona Community Centre on his trike before midday, accompanied by Patch, his nine-year-old Jack Russell.

In the sun’s strong rays, the long-time One Nation voter said he would vote for Farley because of Hanson.

“She’s honest, she knows what we need, and she makes sense when she speaks,” he said.

While many had already called Farrer for One Nation by Saturday morning, some voters who trickled into polling stations were defiant.

Dylan, 24, and Maddie, 25, backed the Legalise Cannabis party for their healthcare policies but are worried about the minor party’s predicted win.

“I don’t think they want to change much. I just think they want to say their opinion a lot louder than everyone else,” Dylan said.

Maddie, a local nurse, said healthcare was her top priority and placed Milthorpe high up the list to receive preferences.

“I like the idea of the new hospital,” she said. “We need a win.”

Liz, 69, said she voted for Milthorpe because she had “sensible attitudes towards other people and other cultures”. She said she wasn’t interested in One Nation or “the others”.

“It’s the attitude of the politicians that I’m interested in, and how much respect they show to all facets of life. That’s more important than, you know, complaining about other people coming from other countries and shit like that. It’s stupid,” she said.

“We’re bloody lucky here that we have roofs over our heads and food and we’re not being bombed.”