Canadians are folding on Vegas. Democrats see a royal flush.

Kush Desai, spokesperson for the White House, noted the “vast majority of Las Vegas tourists are Americans,” adding that the Trump administration “is focused on unleashing the historic job, wage, and economic growth that the American people experienced during President Trump’s first term with the President’s proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance.”

Many Canadians, incensed by Trump’s tariffs and his “51st state” taunts, have boycotted U.S. products and tourist destinations in retaliation. It coincides with an overall dropoff in Canadians’ view of their southern neighbor: According to a POLITICO Poll in February, a majority of Canadians now think the U.S. is an unreliable ally.

Even some Nevada Republicans acknowledge the problem. “The Canadians aren't coming the way they were. Wonder why that is, huh?” Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.), who isn’t running for reelection in his northern Nevada seat, said with a chuckle. “The communications for the tariff stuff was suboptimal.”

The dropoff in Canadian visitors played a role in stagnating a Las Vegas hospitality sector reliant on wealthy international visitors spending in the city’s casinos and hotels. A string of Las Vegas restaurants closed in recent months, some citing a downturn in visitors. And while employment has increased recently in the entertainment and recreation sectors, hiring in food and accommodation has been stagnant, according to Andrew Woods, an economist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The decline has been severe enough that local industry is taking dramatic steps to try to lure back lost business amidst an ongoing boycott from Canada. A group of Las Vegas resorts is offering to treat Canadian dollars at par with U.S. dollars, effectively a 30 percent discount, and hosting free concerts featuring Canadian artists. And the city’s tourism office recently launched a $3.5 million marketing campaign targeting Canadian visitors.

But it’s hard to overcome national patriotic fury with an ad campaign.

“Despite the efforts of our major operators in Las Vegas, the headwinds are coming from these external forces and the policies of this administration, and that's what's creating the economic uncertainty that we're facing right now in Las Vegas,” said Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), whose district Trump lost by less than 3 points.

Overall tourist visits ticked up in February and March from those months the year earlier, offering a silver lining to the service industry. But the previous year of declining numbers created a deep hole to dig out of, said Ted Pappageorge, secretary/treasurer of the state’s powerful Culinary Union, which represents 60,000 cooks, roomkeepers and other hospitality workers in the state. If the low numbers continue, the union — which endorsed Democrats in all four of Nevada’s congressional races — is considering putting together relief efforts for its struggling members like it did during Covid, which included food, utility and rent assistance.

“If there's anything like the reduction in visitation that happened last year, if that happens this year, then we'll be in relief effort territory for our members,” said Pappageorge, noting “thousands and thousands of hours” have been cut for his union’s members this year due to reductions and restaurant closures.

Marty O’Donnell — the GOP front-runner to face Lee, who has the backing of Trump and the NRCC — was once skeptical of tariffs, but now says he “fully support(s)” the president’s trade policy.

“I'm now a convert, because what I see Donald Trump doing with tariffs is not something I ever anticipated,” O’Donnell said in an interview. “He uses it as a negotiating tool in a way that I never anticipated, and I actually love what he's doing.”

O’Donnell said tariffs aren’t at the top of voters’ list of concerns. “I don't hear anybody complaining about tariffs,” he said. “I just don't think it's an issue. I think there are way, way more important issues.”

One Nevada Republican strategist assisting multiple campaigns this cycle, granted anonymity to speak candidly about GOP strategy, admitted that Canadians were upset by Trump’s threats to make the country the “51st state” last year. But he and other Republicans pointed to an uptick in visitors in February and March. The strategist also noted the fact that Nevada added jobs at a faster rate than any other state in April, even though it has the nation’s third-highest unemployment rate. Those recent economic wins take the air out of Democrats’ attack, the strategist said.

“There are some bright spots,” O’Donnell senior adviser Keith Schipper said. “We're talking about tariffs less so now than even six months, eight months ago.”

Republicans also point to the popularity of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who they hope can win reelection in a tough environment and pull down-ballot candidates over the finish line. In a February poll, he was still viewed positively by a majority of Nevada voters even as Trump’s job approval dipped to 41 percent.

Not all economic indicators are dire, said Woods, the UNLV economist. The high-end hospitality sector is doing well, and an uptick in convention and business travelers has more than replaced the loss of Canadian tourists in numbers. “Canadian visitors, though, tend to stay longer and make Vegas their prime destination compared to other international tourists, which is good for our economy,” he said.

The local tourism drop lands on top of other economic concerns that are impacting everyone. A new CNN/SSRS poll conducted in late April and early May found that 77 percent of U.S. voters say Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. And a surge in energy prices driven by the war in Iran led to inflation reaching its highest point in three years.

But Las Vegas is still an industry town. And with the main industry suffering, Democrats are banking on their races going their way.

“There's a lot of service industry folks here, and so those folks are in the social circles in town,” said John Oceguera, the former Democratic speaker of the Nevada Assembly. “Whether you're at a little league baseball game or a school event or whatnot, people are talking about that.”