Can Massie remain standing even as other Trump enemies fall?

Next stop on President Donald Trump’s revenge tour: Kentucky.

On the heels of ousting several Indiana state lawmakers early this month and Sen. Bill Cassidy just days ago, the White House is well-positioned to remove rebellious Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s GOP primary on Tuesday.

It’s one of the final checkpoints in Trump’s monthlong effort to punish Republicans for bucking him. And the list of Massie’s sins is long, from his opposition to the president’s signature tax-and-spending plan to his forceful stands against the war in Iran and successfully pushing for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.

“Trump is coming in as the leader of the party and he has every right to flex his muscle,” said Shane Noem, who is neutral in the race as the chair of the Kenton County Republican Party in Massie’s district. “The question remains: Will the ‘Average Joe’ Republican lean into the party, or will they lean into an outsider who’s been in the party for 14 years?”

The Kentucky libertarian’s fate is the biggest in a slate of tests Tuesday of Trump’s grip on the GOP. In Georgia, the Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate seems likely to advance to a runoff, while Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — who refused to accept the president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results — is polling in third place. In Alabama, Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Barry Moore in the GOP Senate primary helped boost him to front-runner status.

The president’s endorsement has proven to be decisive in GOP primaries and a mobilizing force for his base. A POLITICO poll, conducted by Public First from May 9 to 11, found that nearly half of voters who plan to vote Republican in the midterms would choose a candidate officially endorsed by the president, compared with a candidate Trump hasn’t endorsed but isn’t opposed to (28 percent), or a candidate he’s actively trying to block (9 percent).

Trump and his allies have had some major recent successes in taking out the president’s foes. They spent more than $9 million to pick off five state lawmakers who opposed his redistricting push in Indiana. In Louisiana, Trump lent the influence of his social media account to boost Rep. Julia Letlow early on in the race and State Treasurer John Fleming in the final hours.

But no one has drawn the ire of Trump and his team quite like Massie. The president’s endorsement of former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein united local forces and various factions of the GOP in trying to sink the iconoclastic Kentucky conservative with a libertarian lean. Spending in the race has topped $32 million, making it the most expensive House primary in history, per tracking firm AdImpact. Trump’s political operation and pro-Israel groups who’ve long opposed the incumbent have unleashed more than $16 million against him. Trump rallied with Gallrein in March, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promoted him at an event in the district on Monday.

Polling shows a tightening race down the home stretch after Massie led earlier on, with one survey showing Massie leading Gallrein by just over 1 percentage point and two others showing him trailing by 7 and 8 points, respectively.

Trump’s allies are growing bullish after his romps through other red states: “Got another one coming Tuesday,” Chris LaCivita, Trump’s former campaign manager who is running the anti-Massie super PAC MAGA KY, recently posted on X. in response to a meme of the president knocking out Cassidy with a golf ball.

Asked for comment, the White House pointed to Trump’s recent Truth Social post praising Gallrein as a “WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN” and calling Massie “a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly.”

Massie is a tougher target than some of Trump’s other foes. His libertarian-conservative politics mirror those of his northern Kentucky district where many voters cheer his contrarian stances as principled stands. He has allies in some of the America First movement’s loudest voices, like Tucker Carlson, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), who rallied with Massie over the weekend — and even drew a threat of a primary challenge from Trump over that decision, though the filing period has closed.

Massie is not only clear-eyed about the threat he faces, but leaning into the challenge. He has projected confidence down the home stretch, even as Trump’s foes continue to fall.

“I'm glad he's in with both feet,” Massie told POLITICO on Friday as he left the Capitol for the campaign trail. “This will be his biggest loss ever as far as endorsements go.”

After felling Cassidy, Trump took to Truth Social to label Massie the“worst Republican Congressman in History.” Massie responded on ABC that he was leading and his foes were “desperate.”

In a race that revolves around Trump, Massie has been trying to make the case to voters that they can back him and back the president. He’s attempted to thread the needle on his dissent by arguing he’s with the president “nearly all of the time.” The times when he’s not — the Epstein files, spending, foreign interventions — he says, are because the administration has shifted on its core values, not him.

“Massie’s sitting to the right of Trump and Trump’s never really tried to take out somebody who’s to the right of him before,” said Tres Watson, a Kentucky-based GOP strategist who is not working for either campaign.

Massie’s opposition to Trump’s interventions in Iran and longstanding opposition to U.S. aid to Israel have turned the race into a tussle over the definition of “America First” and the base’s adherence to it as some Republicans, particularly younger ones, splinter over the wars in the Middle East.

“This is a congressional race, but it's also somewhat of a national movement, and it would be bad for Republicans’ prospects in the midterms if I lose,” Massie said. “Not just because they've wasted $10 million of Republican mega donor money on a seat that's going to be red anyway. It’s going to be because those people will be like ‘why am I even voting Republican?’ … they’ll stay home.”

A win on Tuesday, Massie said, gives him “antibodies” against the president and his political machine. In proving it is possible to withstand Trump’s wrath, it could provide a model for other Republicans who break with the president, though vanishingly few remain in Congress.

A Massie defeat — especially on the heels of Cassidy’s Louisiana loss — would signal a larger reality facing the GOP: There’s little room within the party anymore for politicians who disagree with Trump, even as he enters the back half of his presidency.

“There used to be room for effective, mild-mannered wonkish types because they got stuff done and industry and voters appreciated it,” said one Republican strategist working on the Alabama Senate race on behalf of a Moore opponent, granted anonymity to speak freely without fear of retribution. “Now it’s just different.”