Can Macron’s Kenya visit revive French influence in Africa?

Ahead of the summit, the French president had said that Paris wanted “to build partnerships on an equal footing, founded on shared interests and tangible results”.

But his controversial statements at the Nairobi summit raised questions among many Africans on social media about how seriously France will take its promises.

“It’s too early to tell if this is a successful pivot, as the partnership has only just been established,” Beverly Ochieng, Dakar-based West Africa analyst at intelligence firm Control Risks, told Al Jazeera.

Any success, she added, would depend on how Paris and new partners like Kenya manage the shadows cast by growing anti-France sentiments on the continent.

“Alongside this is whether France’s economic and cultural investments – a shift from focusing on military and development aid – are indeed on equal footing, are responsive to contemporary political pressures, and facilitate growth and productivity in Africa,” she said.

What’s France’s influence in Francophone Africa?

France maintains significant colonial-era influence in defence, currency, and commerce in “Francafrique”, which refers to France’s historical sphere of influence in Africa.

French soldiers of the ‘Belleface’ Desert Tactical Group (GTD) work to move an all-terrain armoured vehicle from the mud in the Gourma region during Operation Barkhane in Ndaki, Mali, July 28, 2019 [Benoit Tessier/Reuters]

Military presence

Paris has long maintained a military presence in the former colonies. Following the wave of independence movements in the 1960s, France granted independence to several countries, but in most cases, did not remove military assets.

Despite French troop presence, countries in the West African Sahel have continued to witness waves of instability, stemming from separatist movements as well as religious extremism.

In 2012, insecurity in Mali escalated, perpetrated by separatists and armed groups working together. The crisis spread across joint borders into Burkina Faso and Niger.

Amid the rising insecurity, and upon a request from Mali, France deployed thousands of troops, including several fighter jets stationed in Chad, a former colony. Over the next decade, attacks declined but continued intermittently.

However, when the military in Mali seized power in 2020, France condemned the coup led by current President Assimi Goita, angering the new government. Paris soon began to shift its assets and troops to Niger.

In a turn of events, the military also seized power in Burkina Faso and Niger and ordered French troops out.

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have since formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and turned to Russian mercenaries for support.

Even the more friendly governments of the Ivory Coast, Chad, and Senegal have requested the exit of French troops.

France handed over control of its last major military facility in Senegal last July after Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who attended the Kenya summit, said French bases were incompatible with the country’s sovereignty.

France-backed currency

Despite reduced military influence, France retains monetary control through the Communaute Financiere Africaine (CFA) franc.

The currency was created in 1945. At the time, its acronym stood for “Colonies Francaises d’Afrique” (French Colonies in Africa).

There are two versions: the West African CFA franc and the Central African franc. Collectively, about 14 countries with a combined population of around 210 million use it, including the AES states.

The CFA has a fixed exchange rate that is tied to France’s own currency, the euro. Since the end of World War II, all CFA countries were required to keep 50 percent of their reserves in the French Treasury, and a French representative was always present on the currency board.

Although the CFA has been challenged by critics as a colonial relic, it remains in use to date.

In 2019, the West African franc was reformed so that countries no longer needed to keep half of their reserves in France.

However, it is still pegged to France’s currency, with supporters arguing its link to the more stable euro has protected those countries from inflation in a turbulent region.

A man carries water to a fire while a French-owned Auchan supermarket burns in the background in Dakar, Senegal on March 16, 2023 [Guy Peterson/AFP]

French businesses

There are more than 3,000 French ventures in Africa, according to business intelligence firm Kasi Insight.

Most are concentrated in North Africa – Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, and other Francophone countries. South Africa also holds significant numbers.

These businesses range from telecommunication companies like Orange to energy companies like TotalEnergies and Orano, as well as banks like Societe Generale.

In the West African Sahel, French investments are facing turbulent times amid tensions with the military governments.

In Niger, for example, Orano, which has mined uranium in the country for 50 years, said it lost control of its local subsidiaries after the 2023 coup. Last year, Niamey nationalised the mining company Somair, a subsidiary in which Orano had a 63 percent stake.

“Several French-linked companies have either reduced visibility, frozen expansion plans, or faced renegotiation pressure,” Yannick Lefang, founder of Kasi Insight, told Al Jazeera.

Sahel governments are now turning to partnerships with Russia, Turkiye, Gulf States, and increasingly, China.

However, Lefang said, Sahel governments cannot easily disengage from consumer-facing French companies like the Orange telecoms network because “they are deeply embedded in local economies and employment structures”.

French language

Some 44 percent of the nearly 400 million people who speak French are in Africa. Kinshasa, the capital city of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is known as the largest French-speaking city in the world.

Which country is France turning to now?

Paris is swapping military support and development aid for pure commerce, analysts say.

“While headlines often frame this as ‘France leaving Africa’, our data suggests the reality is more a redistribution of influence than a full retreat,” Lefang said.

France has notably moved closer to Nigeria and Kenya, with which it does not have a colonial history. The two countries host nearly 300 French companies combined.

Nigeria, West Africa’s largest economy, announced in March that it was collaborating with Paris to purchase military equipment and train its army amid a worsening insecurity crisis.

Earlier in 2024, both countries had signed a 300-million-euro ($350m) investment agreement to support critical infrastructure, healthcare, transportation, and renewable energy in Nigeria.

Similarly, France has signed a defence pact with Kenya, an important economic hub in East Africa, to boost cooperation in intelligence sharing, maritime security, and peacekeeping.

However, Anglophone countries are highly competitive, analysts say.

In 2025, President Ruto of Kenya terminated a highway contract with France’s Vinci Highways SAS due to cost concerns. The contract has now been handed to a Chinese company.