Can historic Israel-Lebanon talks lead to ceasefire?

Trump has announced that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak with each other for the first time in more than three decades on Thursday.

“Trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform. “It has been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will happen tomorrow. Nice!” The US president did not specify which leaders would be involved in the talks.

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Lebanon, said Trump’s post was “very controversial”.

“When he talks about giving Lebanon and Israel some ‘breathing space’, it could be interpreted as a ceasefire,” she reported.

“But I just spoke to an official source in Lebanon who told me that there is no information – those were the words used – about a possible phone conversation between Lebanese and Israeli leaders. Or a possible second meeting between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington.”

Why did the fighting begin?

Israel’s attacks on Lebanon intensified as tensions surged following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28.

Hezbollah entered the war by launching rockets, missiles and drones towards a missile defence site near Haifa in northern Israel on March 2, in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first strikes on Tehran. Up until then, the Iran-backed, Lebanese-armed group had not attacked Israel since a November 2024 ceasefire, despite near-daily breaches of the deal by Israel.

Israel responded immediately with air raids on the suburbs of Beirut where it claimed Hezbollah strongholds are located. Since then, Israel has carried out extensive air attacks across Lebanon and launched a ground invasion into the south. Israeli forces have pushed further into southern areas, targeting Hezbollah and attempting to establish a buffer zone along the border.

Last month, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said his country would install a “security zone” in southern Lebanon stretching to the Litani River, roughly 30km (20 miles) north of the Israeli border. In pursuit of this goal, Israel has destroyed multiple bridges across the river, a strategy that has been widely condemned.

Rights groups have warned that Israel appears to be trying to isolate the region from the rest of the country.

The scale of the Israeli offensive has been significant, killing more than 2,000 people across Lebanon and injuring thousands more, with roughly 1.2 million displaced. Israeli attacks have hit multiple areas, including densely populated neighbourhoods in the capital, Beirut.

Israeli army vehicles and bulldozers operate in southern Lebanon [Ariel Schalit/AP Photo]

What are the prospects for a ceasefire?

As things stand, the chances of a truce look slim, observers say.

Analyst Nadim Houry said even if a phone call were to take place between Israel’s Netanyahu and his Lebanese counterpart, it would be “mostly symbolic rather than substantive”.

“Lebanon wants a ceasefire as a priority to enter into negotiations whose aim would be to liberate lands currently occupied by Israel,” Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, told Al Jazeera.

“Israel is focused on fighting Hezbollah and is seeking to create a buffer zone in Lebanon (a new occupation zone). In particular, Israel seems keen to occupy the town of Bint Jbeil before any ceasefire announcement,” he noted, adding that it would be “mostly for symbolic reasons that Netanyahu wants to sell internally in Israel”.

The town of Bint Jbeil has been particularly hard hit by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon, with Netanyahu claiming this week that Israeli forces were about to “overwhelm” the area.

While the meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors on Tuesday was seen by some as a breakthrough, it resulted in no tangible plan for reaching a ceasefire.

Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US and a prominent settlement advocate, portrayed the meeting in highly positive terms, describing it as “a wonderful exchange” among parties “united in liberating Lebanon” from Hezbollah. By contrast, Lebanon’s envoy, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, struck a more restrained tone. She characterised the talks as “constructive” but stressed she had used the opportunity to push for a ceasefire.

Before the meeting, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem called for the talks to be cancelled, labelling them “futile”.

Further dimming prospects for de-escalation, Netanyahu announced on Wednesday that he had instructed the Israeli army to widen its offensive in southern Lebanon, pushing operations further east.

Netanyahu said Israel was continuing diplomatic contacts with the Lebanese government in parallel with its military campaign against Hezbollah, framing both tracks as part of an effort to disarm the group and secure what he described as “sustainable peace” with Israel’s northern neighbour.

Why is a ceasefire so important?

A key demand from Iran in its dialogue with the US is that Israel end its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran said the ceasefire agreed last week should include the war in Lebanon, but the US and Israel have rejected that. Trump has called Israel’s assaults on its neighbour “a separate skirmish”, even though Hezbollah entered the war in defence of Iran.

An initial social media post by Pakistani PM Sharif announcing the ceasefire included Lebanon. Following that announcement, however, Israel launched its most widespread attacks since March – when fighting with Hezbollah began – striking more than 100 targets across the country in just one day, Wednesday, last week.

Hezbollah is Tehran’s most powerful regional ally and a central part of the “axis of resistance”, a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel, including Yemen’s Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq.

Political analyst Doyle says it is “absolutely crucial” a ceasefire is attained in Lebanon, including the fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.

“This would then hopefully free up space for the negotiations between the United States and Iran, given that Iran has made this a condition of moving forward,” Doyle added.

Houry said the Lebanon front has become “one of the main transmission belts of the broader regional war … If it stays open, the conflict keeps spreading; if it closes, it creates one of the few real openings for wider de-escalation.”

Nevertheless, Doyle said the underlying issue remains for Israel: Disarming Hezbollah and “finishing it off”.

“It [Israel] sees this as a great opportunity. Netanyahu has huge domestic support within Israel for doing this, in contrast to the declining support for President Trump for his war against Iran.”

Besides the diplomatic efforts, the human suffering caused by this conflict is high.

Taghrid Abdallah, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) protection coordinator in Lebanon, said the conflict has had a “severe and complex” impact on children in particular.

“Many children are not only losing their homes, but also their caregivers as a result of the ongoing violence,” she told Al Jazeera. “With the support of our partners, we have been visiting hospitals to identify children who have been separated from or have lost their families, often arriving injured, traumatised and alone.”

Since the Israeli attack on Beirut last week, which killed more than 300 people, the IRC has identified at least 29 unaccompanied children, with eight successfully reunited with their families so far.

More broadly, Abdallah said the “psychological impact is evident”.

“Children are experiencing fear, anxiety and disrupted sleep. Parents report noticeable behavioural changes, including withdrawal, aggression and difficulty concentrating,” she noted.