Can Burnham turn ‘Manchesterism’ into a practical offer for government?

Lawrence’s work argues that the state should not just regulate, but directly own and operate in essential sectors. It should provide services where profit is not the main incentive – seen in practice by Manchester’s Bee Network buses, where the city has control over the routes and the price.

But Burnham himself has never directly said he intends to nationalise those essential services such as energy and water, but rather that they should be brought into “public control” with more government involvement in the way they are run and paid for.

Those close to the mayor say the pragmatic version of Manchesterism shows a framework for a more productive relationship between the state and business – Burnham has been widely known as a business-friendly mayor. “You can be pro-business but want more of the proceeds of growth recycled back into our communities,” he has said.

The small team behind Burnham face an extraordinary challenge to win a tight byelection and potentially prepare for power – and are likely to face tough questions about how that framework can be applied in government via specific policy levers, and especially how to do so in such fiscally constrained circumstances.

Allies of Burnham say the first test of their theories on public ownership will be Thames Water, the stricken utility for which the government is trying to find a new buyer.

Many on the left of Labour want ministers to abandon attempts to negotiate a sale, and allow Thames to collapse into special administration, effectively putting the government in the driving seat.

Some advocate for public control of water companies rather than full nationalisation. This could involve setting up an independent company, perhaps with worker representation on the board, which would have some kind of accountability to government.

They cite Berlin as one example of this, where the local water company was brought back into municipal control in 2012. Berlin water company’s board is half elected by workers, and half appointed by the city council.

Some on the right of Labour fear Lawrence’s approach, set out in a long article in the New Statesman last week, is too theoretical and lacks a retail offer. The Labour Growth Group, which has discussed its recent publication An Honest Day with Burnham’s team, has called for more tangible, immediate action on the cost of living and harder messaging on extractive capitalism that rewards grifting.

The other key influence – although less likely to play a major part in the byelection – has been Lawson’s thinktank Compass; primarily its work on the need for constitutional reform, especially the electoral system. However, Burnham has indicated he does not expect this to be possible before the next election.

As well as Lawrence and Lawson, Makerfield’s outgoing MP, Josh Simons, is likely to be influential in the development of Burnham’s agenda – although his past at the Starmerite operation Labour Together and the fallout from the scandal over the investigation of journalists that led to him resigning from the government in February will mean an uneasy alliance with some of those on the left who have been longtime backers of Burnham.

Simons, and his wife, Leah, who is a Harvard-trained economist, grilled Burnham for two hours at their home in Makerfield on his economic agenda before Simons finally decided he would give up his seat to allow the mayor to run again for parliament.

But Simons said on Sunday he too was a believer in Burnham’s diagnosis about the selling off of national assets. “One of the things he’s really, really committed to is that the energy, water, social housing, those things that are the basics of our lives that we all depend on have gotten so expensive … we’ve privatised a lot of them and often the bills that we pay go to the shareholders of some private equity fund,” he said.

“It is for Andy to say whether he’s going to disaggregate neoliberalism but, you know, I don’t think he would entirely reject that … I basically agree that over the last 40 years the basic way that we’ve run our economy is shafting my constituents.”