Bill Cassidy’s last stand?

The Cassidy campaign has said it is well aware of the challenges confronting them, but they remain confident about the senator’s chances given his record in Congress. Cassidy Campaign Manager Mark Harris said this week that their data shows the incumbent will likely not finish first but is in a good position to qualify for the run-off, thanks in part to a high number of non-party voters casting ballots in Louisiana’s closed primary.

“It's sort of Julia's to lose in the first round,” Harris said. “Our data indicates we have a very strong chance to put together a winning coalition, and then [win] in the run-off.”

But Cassidy’s history of frustrating MAGA goes beyond just the impeachment vote. He rankled the MAGA faithful — and the emerging Make America Healthy Again coalition — by sharply questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines during his Senate confirmation. He further angered the MAHA movement by helping block the nomination of health influencer Casey Means to be U.S. Surgeon General.

His actions have pushed the Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC to pledge spending $1 million on Letlow’s behalf as they seek to oust Cassidy — though the influence of its spending remains to be seen.

“MAHA issues are in fact central to this race and to races all around the country, where in many cases they poll higher than most other issues for voters, especially for the all-important undecided voters,” MAHA PAC leader Tony Lyons previously told POLITICO in a text. “It’s true that Big Pharma and big food would like to convince voters otherwise, but Julia Letlow is a strong insurgent candidate and she will win.”

Nonpartisan polling shows Cassidy trailing both Fleming and Letlow, with an Emerson College Survey from late April putting him at 21 percent support, behind Fleming at 28 percent and Letlow at 27 percent. Cassidy’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

“What we’ve known all along is now becoming clear to everyone watching this race: Julia Letlow has the support, the momentum, and the trust of Louisiana Republicans,” said Katherine Thordahl, Letlow campaign spokesperson, in a statement. “Unfortunately for Bill Cassidy, Louisianans have never forgotten Bill Cassidy’s vote to convict President Trump, which remains the defining contrast in this race.”

Cassidy’s path to a run-off isn’t completely closed.

He’s benefitting from the anti-Cassidy MAGA vote being split between Letlow and Fleming, who has summoned strong grassroots support throughout his campaign. Fleming has declared himself the most conservative candidate in the race, pointing to his record as a member of the House Freedom Caucus. He also served as a White House aide during Trump’s first administration as deputy chief of staff.

“Neither one of them can claim a stronger conservative voting record,” Fleming said in an interview. “Between them, I stand alone so I think that's the real driver of my lead on this.”

Berken said in an interview he was leaning toward supporting Fleming due to his conservative credentials. “I know what I get with John Fleming, and even though President Trump endorsed Julia, I think he did that at Governor Landry's behest,” he said, referring to GOP Gov. Jeff Landry’s campaign to elect Letlow to the Senate.

Letlow and Fleming have spent the final days of the campaign attacking each other, a sign that they expect to face each other in the run-off — or that they believe Cassidy may end up pulling off a surprising rise if they continue to split the MAGA vote.

Cassidy, meanwhile, continues to train all of his fire on Letlow in the home stretch. The senator has attempted to cast her as insufficiently conservative, nicknaming her “Liberal Letlow” and hammering her for past comments she made in support of diversity initiatives in higher education. Letlow has since disavowed those programs, arguing they have been hijacked by the left.

By going so hard against Letlow, "Cassidy's committing murder suicide," said one Louisiana GOP strategist who’s unaffiliated in the race, granted anonymity to speak freely. The strategist predicted that Fleming would emerge with the most votes.

Letlow, in response to negative campaigning from both of her opponents, has made Trump’s endorsement the centerpiece of her campaign, offered up as proof she passes the MAGA litmus test.

"What I'm hearing is this actually looks pretty, pretty tight, with a lot of undecideds right now," said Jamey Sandefur, chair of the Livingston Parish GOP. "I'm getting the sense that a lot of people are walking into the booth and deciding when they get there."

"I've always thought that endorsements don't really matter, but I have heard a lot of people tell me that the Trump endorsement of Congresswoman Letlow is going to be the deciding factor for them,” he said. “So that's playing in the race a lot more than I had expected."