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Australians with Down’s syndrome among those to suffer most from proposed NDIS cuts government analysis says
TL;DR
Proposed NDIS funding cuts could severely impact Australians with Down’s syndrome, visual impairments, and psychosocial disabilities, with plans to reduce budgets by 50% by 2027. The NDIS cost is projected to exceed $117 billion in a decade without significant reforms.
Key points
- Proposed NDIS cuts could reduce budgets by 50% by 2027
- Australians with Down’s syndrome will be among the most affected
- NDIS costs projected to exceed $117 billion in ten years
- Health Minister introduced changes to achieve growth rate targets
- Office of Impact Analysis provided warning signs regarding NDIS funding
Mentioned in this story
NDISMark Butler
Office of Impact Analysis
Proposed funding cuts to NDIS would disadvantage Australians with visual impairment, psychosocial disability and Down’s syndrome the most, according to government analysis, with the government hoping to slash those budgets by 50% by the end of 2027.
It also forecasts the cost of the NDIS will more than double in 10 years to $117bn, representing 2.4% of GDP, unless significant changes are made to the $50bn program.
The warning signs contained in a new report by the Office of Impact Analysis (OIA) revealed the options the Department of Health considered as it looked at improve the quality and cost of the NDIS.
The health minister, Mark Butler, last week introduced changes he said were critical to achieving the national cabinet’s annual growth rate target of 5-6% in the coming years.
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The federal budget papers showed the changes are expected to tip $36.2bn back into Treasury and bring the growth rate down to an average of 3.6% until 2030.
The changes would also result in around 600,000 remaining on the NDIS. There are now 774,456 on the scheme as of March 2026, an increase of 13,014 since December 2025.
The OIA’s conclusions show the move to reduce funding for social, civic and community participation (SCCP) budgets – designed to reduce isolation and build independence for NDIS participants – will impact some disability groups more significantly.
Those most affected, on average, will be people with visual impairment. The modelling showed an average of about 34% of these plans was set aside for social participation, with an average six-month budget of $13,233.
For participants with psychosocial disability, about 30% of funding is typically reserved for social activities while for those with Down’s syndrome, it is about 28%.
“Participants with certain primary disabilities are expected to be more affected by the reductions to SCCP funding,” the report acknowledged.
“Some disability types require limited day-to-day support for activities of daily living, but require significant support to access the community.”
Q&A
How will the proposed NDIS cuts affect Australians with Down’s syndrome?
The proposed cuts are expected to disproportionately disadvantage Australians with Down's syndrome by reducing their access to necessary support services.
What is the projected cost of the NDIS in the next ten years?
The NDIS cost is forecasted to more than double to $117 billion over the next decade, representing 2.4% of GDP.
What changes did Health Minister Mark Butler introduce regarding NDIS funding?
Mark Butler introduced changes aimed at achieving a national cabinet growth rate target of 5-6% for the NDIS in the coming years.
What are the potential consequences of the NDIS budget cuts?
The budget cuts could lead to reduced support for individuals with disabilities, worsening their quality of life and access to essential services.
