Andy Burnham will push to become PM before Labour conference, allies say

Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary this week but stopped short of challenging Starmer, gave his backing to Burnham standing on Friday, saying: “We need our best players on the pitch. There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them.”

It is still possible that he or other cabinet ministers could push for a full leadership contest rather than a Burnham coronation if he wins the byelection.

Burnham is expected to set out next week his vision of “Manchesterism” – a politics of making people feel rooted and invested in their local areas – and how it could apply to the whole country.

Analysis by Survation shared with the Guardian suggests Labour with Burnham as the candidate could narrowly beat Reform by 45% to 43% in Makerfield, compared with Labour with another candidate attracting 27% versus 53% for Reform. The results were extrapolated using modelling from official election results, census data and survey data from the recent Gorton and Denton byelection.

In something of a blow to Labour, the Green party on Friday pledged to stand in the seat, a move criticised by the party’s former leader Caroline Lucas.

The contest has the potential to be a symbolic battle for the future of the country, with Nigel Farage’s Reform saying it will be fighting for the seat as hard as possible. Reform’s candidate is expected to be selected by the party’s HQ and there is understood to be concern that the party will face competition for votes from a candidate put forward by Rupert Lowe’s rightwing party Restore Britain.

Neal Lawson, a close adviser to Burnham, said he believed Burnham had “unique” electoral appeal in that he “appeals to both Green voters and Reform voters, and no one else does it”.

He said: “He’s always been confident about any byelection in the north-west. I think he sees in the seat that he’s got an opportunity to take on Farage and take on the right – and win. This is a real change. It’s not cosmetic. This is deep political, democratic, economic, social change. I think he can win on that ticket and through his commitment to PR [proportional representation], to pluralism, to new politics, he can win over the Greens as well.”

Some MPs are extremely nervous about what could happen if Burnham loses the seat and expressed dismay that he had not engineered a potentially easier battle. One Labour MP described Makerfield as the “absolute ground zero of red wall Reform anger” and argued that if the local election results were replicated then Burnham as the candidate would need to take almost every vote off the Greens and Lib Dems, as well as winning additional votes off Reform.